The Greens face significant challenges as they prepare for the upcoming 2025 federal elections, especially amidst the ongoing migration debate and Friedrich Merz’s influence. Robert Habeck aims to position the party as a beacon of hope, contrasting with the CDU’s rightward shift. Despite stagnant polling, the Greens plan to counter Merz’s proposals and maintain ideological boundaries against the AfD, all while advocating for reforms in education and infrastructure. The likelihood of a black-green coalition appears increasingly unlikely.
Federal Election 2025: The Greens’ Challenges
The Greens are gearing up for the election campaign amidst significant challenges. The ongoing migration debate arrives at a pivotal moment. With the Union’s chancellor candidate, Friedrich Merz, looming large at the party congress, can the Greens sway votes from the Union?
Robert Habeck has identified a void in the political landscape—the center, which he refers to as the ‘Merkel center.’ He argues that this space is unoccupied as Friedrich Merz shifts the CDU further to the right, even courting support from the AfD to enforce stringent asylum policies. ‘This is not a trivial matter,’ Habeck asserts to the party delegates. ‘We cannot overlook this as a mere tactical error.’
Whether viewed as a tactical error, a political maneuver, or a matter of principle, the discourse surrounding the Union, the AfD, and asylum policy is timely for the Greens. Entering the party congress weighed down by issues like the Stefan Gelbhaar affair and Habeck’s recent miscommunication about social contributions on capital gains, these concerns faded into the background. The presence of Merz has inadvertently unified the Greens, with delegates rallying in support of their chancellor candidate.
While the Greens aim to solidify their election program, the shadow of asylum policy looms large.
The Greens’ Aspirations vs. Reality
Although Habeck enjoys favorable polling numbers, his party’s support remains stagnant, hovering between 13 and 15 percent—well below their expectations. However, Habeck perceives a chance to capitalize on the situation. Merz’s proposals for border rejections, detention of those facing deportation, and strict border controls have sparked intense discussions. The Greens interpret Merz’s actions as an alignment with the AfD, despite his attempts to clarify his position.
With just four weeks until the election, Merz’s proposals are igniting fervent debates.
Greens’ Strategic Approach
Habeck argues that the Union has strayed further from the center, leaving potential voters behind, and he aims to reclaim them. ‘Perhaps the election campaign will take an unexpected direction,’ he posits, ‘favoring confidence over resentment.’
‘Confidence’ is the central theme of Habeck’s campaign. He aspires to be a beacon of hope and optimism, promoting a narrative of progress. Nonetheless, as the Minister of Economics, he grapples with disappointing economic figures.
Will the complexities of the Union’s mixed messages regarding the AfD overshadow this narrative? The economic realities remain unchanged, and migration now dominates the electoral discourse. Merz will face continuous scrutiny about his stance on the AfD, which could open the door for the Greens to leverage this situation to their advantage.
As a partner in the traffic light coalition, Habeck has urged his party to make several compromises.
Countering Merz’s Influence
Even in absentia, Friedrich Merz’s presence is felt at the Green party congress. Faction leader Katharina Dröge questions his qualifications for the chancellorship, asking, ‘How could Friedrich Merz think his habitual ‘We can’t do this’ qualifies him to lead Germany?’
Similarly, Annalena Baerbock, the Greens’ previous chancellor candidate, criticizes Merz and the Union, expressing disappointment that they have failed to uphold their values as a conservative party.
Iris Sayram, ARD Berlin, on the campaign topics of the Greens
Declining Prospects for Black-Green Coalition
The Greens are steadfast in maintaining their ideological boundaries. While they acknowledge the incident in Aschaffenburg, they refrain from discussing specific repercussions, firmly rejecting any collaboration with the AfD. Their goal is to serve as a counterbalance to Merz’s CDU, not just in asylum policy but also in climate and social justice initiatives.
Moreover, they advocate for increased investments in education and infrastructure, calling for reforms to the debt brake. The election program presents various alternatives to the CDU and CSU’s proposals. Will this resonate with voters in the center? It may ultimately be a matter of self-affirmation for the Greens.
One thing appears increasingly clear: the prospect of a black-green coalition is becoming more remote. This development is likely to be welcomed by Markus Söder.
For further insights, analyses, and updates on the upcoming federal election in February 2025, stay tuned.