The decarbonization of the aviation sector will require public policies “fast, aggressive and sustained”. In a study (link in English) published Thursday, June 9, the think tank International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) estimates that the sector’s greenhouse gas emissions will have to start decreasing before the end of the decade and if possible before 2025, to remain “in the nails” of the Paris Agreement, signed in 2015 (PDF).
Except by severely limiting traffic growth or launching carbon capture operations, none of the three scenarios developed by the ICCT sees the aviation sector on a trajectory of 1.5°C, the most ambitious objective. of the Paris agreement. However, the companies are not planning to reduce traffic or at least limit its growth, as some NGOs are calling for: they plan to carry 10 billion passengers in the middle of the 21st century, compared to 4.5 billion in 2019, before the health crisis.
If no action is taken, the aviation sector is expected to emit 48.6 gigatonnes of CO2 between 2020 and 2050, causing average global temperatures to rise well above 2°C by 2100, a threshold set in the Paris and considered the maximum to which humanity could adapt before the consequences of global warming lead to catastrophic upheavals throughout the world.
But if a maximum of measures were taken, such as the massive use of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) developed from biomass or, in the long term, from a combination of CO2 and hydrogen “green”the “carbon budget” of aviation in 2020-2050 could be reduced to 22.5 gigatonnes, compatible with a warming of 1.75°C, estimates the ICCT. In this modeling, “rapid, aggressive and sustained interventions” governments would be needed to “trigger massive investment in zero-emission appliances and fuels”. In this case, in 2050, “CO2 emissions (from air) would fall by 94% compared to 2019 levels”.
The airlines, united in the International Air Transport Association (Iata), have endorsed the objective of “net zero emissions” by 2050. To do this, they avoid limiting traffic growth and count 65% on SAF, but also on better operational efficiency (trajectories, ground operations, etc.) as well as on a system of carbon capture and emissions trading. Cost estimated by Iata: 1,550 billion dollars over thirty years.