The government is cautiously maneuvering through budget negotiations amid potential internal strife and a looming no-confidence vote. As it engages with lawmakers, particularly from the Socialist party, the administration faces challenges in securing consensus on the finance bill. Proposals from various ministers, including increased work hours for Social Security funding, complicate discussions. With financial constraints and a focus on maintaining stability, the government seeks to balance demands from both the left and right while preparing for possible censure motions.
Government Navigates Budget Challenges
The government is treading cautiously with its budget strategy, enveloped in what can be described as an “organized fog.” This approach aims to avert a no-confidence vote, yet it risks creating internal discord.
A close associate of François Bayrou expressed, “We will let the theater unfold without getting upset,” emphasizing the need to avoid escalating tensions as a critical week looms for the administration.
Following the Senate’s approval of the finance bill, the government is now poised for a challenging negotiation phase with lawmakers, especially from the Socialist party, to reach a consensus that could be ratified by the joint committee on Thursday. This panel consists of an equal number of senators and deputies. If consensus remains elusive, the government may resort to invoking article 49.3, which could place the Prime Minister in a vulnerable position concerning a motion of censure.
Having successfully navigated a potential crisis regarding the general policy statement by making concessions to the Socialist party, the government is described as “walking a tightrope.” An associate noted, “Everything is very unstable; we must exercise caution.” Public Accounts Minister Amélie de Montchalin assured her readiness to collaborate with Economy Minister Eric Lombard to clarify the “points of convergence” for parliamentarians, striving to enhance the likelihood of a compromise.
Striking a Balance Amidst Budget Constraints
“We are balancing our actions. If we increase one area, we must decrease another,” the minister explained on Franceinfo, highlighting that the budget is constrained by a deficit the government aims to reduce to 5.4% of GDP. The financial implications of any compromise are “infinitely less” than the potential censure cost, which the government estimates at 12 billion.
Despite this caution, some proposals have surfaced from Matignon, including a suggestion from Minister of Solidarity Catherine Vautrin regarding an additional seven hours of work per year to bolster Social Security funding, a notion that may complicate negotiations.
Additionally, Labor Minister Astrid Panosyan-Bouvet proposed that retirees should also contribute, although this idea was swiftly dismissed as a personal view.
President Emmanuel Macron has also voiced his concerns, defending the budgets allocated to athletes.
Government spokesperson Sophie Primas dismissed any notion of “cacophony,” instead referring to a “polyphony” of experienced ministers committed to offering solutions for the Prime Minister and Parliament to consider.
These discussions are causing concern among socialists, particularly deputy Philippe Brun, who expressed opposition to cuts in State Medical Aid for undocumented migrants, a demand from the right that the government is also attempting to address.
“Nothing is guaranteed. We need actionable measures. The government has the flexibility to move forward,” noted senator Thierry Cozic.
However, a Macronist official cautioned against expectations of easy concessions, stating, “In the PS, they have permanent badges in the ministries. Given what we’ve already provided, I hope the PS realizes it may need to seek funding elsewhere.”
Ultimately, the government is cautious about revealing its plans, as doing so could jeopardize its negotiations with both the left and the right. A ministerial source remarked, “There is no single item worth billions that could pass through the opposition’s scrutiny.” The government can afford to bide its time in the CMP, where it holds a majority, before addressing the censure motion anticipated after the 49.3 invocation.
In essence, Bayrou’s strategy reflects a “fog camp” approach, as the finance bill does not clearly connect presented economic theories to practical implications, potentially frustrating lawmakers who were informed of government amendments at the last minute.
It remains uncertain whether the Socialist party will proceed with a censure while simultaneously negotiating pension reform with social partners. Ms. de Montchalin expressed a desire to “give every chance to representative democracy” as well as “to social democracy.”