Four months of good news then bam, inflation catches up with us. All indicators are on the rise in December after an already very trying year 2023.
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At 4% inflation in Quebec and 3.4% in Canada, the December figures “are not reassuring,” Sylvain Charlebois said Tuesday morning, looking at fresh data from Statistics Canada.
Meanwhile, the expert adds, big grocers are reducing their discounts.
Canada ended 2023 with a 3.9% increase in the cost of living compared to 4.5% in Quebec. This is the worst inflation in 40 years if we remove 2022, which resulted in an increase of 6.8%.
Main culprit in 2023: housing. At 28.5%, the cost of a mortgage has never risen so quickly in the history of Statistics Canada.
The other way of seeing it, adds David Dupuis, “is that things have been going really well for four months and that 3.9% is not 6.8%.”
The economics teacher at the University of Sherbrooke mentions the price of clothing, goods and services as encouraging signs.
“But it is certain that the price of food and housing is pushing the average upwards,” concedes the former Bank of Canada economist, who remains positive.
To return to groceries, prices have jumped another 7.5% in 2023 in Canada. This is roughly half as high as 2022.
“Currently, in grocery stores, it is the increase in fruits and vegetables that is hurting the most,” observes Sylvain Charlebois.
He does not budge: the December data are surprising and worrying, “they break the comforting momentum of recent months”.
David Dupuis, for his part, finds it “reassuring in the context”.
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– With the collaboration of Charles Mathieu and Olivier Larose-Desnoyers
Three big chunks of our spending
The booming price
+2.6% in 2022 and +28.5% in 2023 for the mortgage
A small increase of 2.6% on the cost of mortgage interest in 2022, then boom, comes 2023. We have just ended the year at 28.5%, the highest increase ever recorded. We’re not talking about a $200 grocery basket, but loans of $200,000, $300,000, $400,000 or more. No wonder some are talking about a coming “mortgage bomb”. When the mortgage goes from $1500 to $2000 per month, you feel it.
The price that makes us faint
+9.8% in 2022 and 7.8% in 2023 for food at the grocery store
So it will never stop? Every month for the past 30 months, sharp price increases at the grocery store have been observed. The record in Quebec? 11.4%, in November 2022, just ahead of the 11.3% in January 2023. We went to 5.7% last month. It’s still huge: the pack of 12 eggs that we paid $1.99 at a discount not 24 months ago now costs $3.99. Who wants to add products to the list?
Ten food categories whose prices have increased significantly in 2023
Juice +17.5%
Canned fruit and fruit preparations +13.2%
Cookies and crackers +12.6%
Frozen and dried vegetables +11.4%
Butter +10.9%
Edible fats and oils +10.8%
Fresh or frozen beef +10.6%
Sugar and confectionery +9.3%
Canned vegetables and vegetable preparations +8.8%
Ice cream and related products +8.4%
The price that gets us pumped
+28.5% in 2022 and -7.6% in 2023 for gasoline
Canada as a whole has just had a good year for the price of gasoline: -7.6%. The increase was 28.5% in 2022. In Quebec, last month: +3.6%. But be careful: oil companies and their service stations will raise their prices this summer, like every year, for the holidays. Let those who have red cans fill them!