The dream will have lasted nine years.
Posted at 7:45 a.m.
Nine long years of studies, promising press briefings and professions of faith in Quebecers’ love for major league baseball. Nine long years where the hope of the return of the Expos will have inhabited the most nostalgic, those who, like me, have been marked by the tribulations of this team, surely the most unlucky in our sporting history.
Today, the case is heard. Stephen Bronfman said it after the rejection of the concept of “shared custody” by Major League Baseball: there is no plan B. The development of the Bridge-Bonaventure sector will take place without a baseball stadium.
Was this idea of Expos-Rays absurd or avant-garde? Many people go for the first answer. I am more careful. The history of professional sports is full of unexpected developments, first deemed impossible by the leaders, analysts and fans of the time.
Examples ?
The arrival of free agents would cause the bankruptcy of the clubs; televising all local matches in the city where a team is playing would empty the stands; advertising would never be allowed on uniforms; player salaries would remain confidential; professional leagues would always oppose sports betting; the fall in the number of fights in the NHL would lead to the disaffection of many fans and a dramatic increase in violent beatings… These theories have not stood the test of time.
So let’s wait before concluding that professional sport will always reject this idea of ”shared custody”. Successfully predicting major trends in the spectator sports industry is an exercise full of pitfalls. But we do know this: if this concept sees the light of day, it won’t be in Montreal.
***
March 2013. The Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal announces that it will sponsor studies on the possible return of major league baseball to Montreal. Nine months later, the cost of the project is quantified: approximately 1 billion dollars (525 million for the purchase of a concession and 500 million for the construction of a stadium).
These data arouse cautious enthusiasm. Major league baseball headliners, such as Toronto Blue Jays president Paul Beeston and influential players’ agent Scott Boras, spoke highly of Montreal’s candidacy.
In the spring of 2014, against all odds, Olympic Stadium was packed for two preseason games for the Toronto Blue Jays. As if Montreal reconciled with Major League Baseball and Major League Baseball reconciled with Montreal.
Deep-pocketed business people like Stephen Bronfman board the train as it leaves the station in full swing. The most optimistic are convinced: before long, Montreal will find its Z’Amours.
PHOTO ANDRÉ PICHETTE, LA PRESSE ARCHIVES
Stephen Bronfman
Unfortunately for towns looking for a club, the baseball economy is changing at the same time. The significant increase in television rights, combined with the hundreds of millions generated by the operation of new stadiums and the digital activities of the major leagues, profoundly changes the situation.
As a result, the value of concessions skyrockets. Acquiring a team for 500 million US is no longer a realistic goal. In 2017, for example, the Miami Marlins were sold for 1.2 billion US. In 2020, the New York Mets find takers in return for 2.4 billion US. The fall in value of the loonie against the US dollar adds to the difficulties.
Montreal investors, who hoped to revive the Expos, then abandoned this plan. It’s too expensive.
The dream then goes out for the first time.
It was at this time that the idea of ”shared custody” germinated, in which the Tampa Bay Rays became interested. Despite extraordinary successes on the field, they attract skinny crowds and their future seems in jeopardy.
For several months, plans are developed and improved. A colossal amount of work is done, especially in Montreal. The stars are well aligned, especially since the stadium would be built in an area ready for major development.
Even the Government of Quebec is studying the initiative. It’s a stark change from the late 1990s, when Premier Lucien Bouchard refused all public assistance for the construction of a new home for the Expos, just behind the Bell Centre.
Major League Baseball lets the people of Tampa Bay and Montreal work. But when he realizes that the case is really serious, he puts the brakes on. This initiative would mark a breach in his traditional business model and the novelty makes him uneasy.
The dream then goes out a second and last time.
***
In the end, Tampa Bay may be able to save its Rays. Public investments in new stadiums do not create the same commotion in Florida as in Quebec. Otherwise, the Rays will move to Las Vegas or San Antonio. The baseball industry will probably be better for it.
But for Montreal, it’s the end of emissions. The cost of buying a concession is now too high. A full-time team would also require the addition of a roof to the new stadium, which would significantly increase the bill. And where would this building be built? The ideal location will now be developed differently.
That’s not all: would future Expos attract 2.5 million spectators annually? Would they convince one of our television networks to pay 50 million per season to broadcast their games?
By claiming to have no plan B, Stephen Bronfman has implicitly answered these questions. The figures released in 2013 for a full-time dealership no longer hold water. And those today are beyond our means and, let’s face it, our collective interest in baseball.
No, the Expos will not rise from the ashes.
No, Major League Baseball will not return to Montreal, shared custody or not.
It’s sad to admit it, but, this time, we have to get used to it for good: Go Jays Go (alas)…