(Yellowknife) The Arctic is known more for its blizzards than its rains, but that could change within the next 80 years.
Posted at 4:34 p.m.
The number of rainy days could double in this region, according to a new projection from the American Geophysical Union. The study was published in the organization’s journal, Earth’s Future.
Chinese and Dutch scientists have used climate models to predict precipitation in the Arctic until the year 2100.
Not only will it rain more often in the region, but the precipitation will fall earlier in the spring and is expected to extend to the central Arctic Ocean and the interior of Greenland.
According to the paper’s lead author, Tingfeng Dou, of the University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, this could mean “the arrival of a new Arctic”.
“In the past, rainfall was limited to the ends of the Greenland Ice Sheet,” he said in a press release.
The study indicates that more frequent and intense rains could accelerate the melting of permafrost, which would release a large volume of greenhouse gases, decrease the snow cover and reduce the sea ice.
Scientists also anticipate an increase in periods of rain on the snow, which could affect the feeding of animals such as reindeer, as their food could be trapped under the ice. As a result, this climate change could also affect those who depend on hunting or farming these animals.
“Even a normal rain can be considered an extreme event in the polar regions”, underlines the Pr From where.
Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado at Boulder, was not involved in the study. According to him, it happened that tens of thousands of reindeer or muskox perished because they could no longer dig in the frozen ground after a downpour.
These repercussions can affect several generations. These are quite significant effects. Will we see more if climate change continues? This is where the real concern lies.
Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado
Mr Serreze says air can carry more water vapor in a warmer environment, causing more precipitation. And if it is warmer, it will rain more often than it snows.
The study shows that the changes in precipitation are mainly attributable to the rapid warming of the Arctic. In this region, the warming is too times faster than the global average. The increase in precipitation also contributes to this phenomenon.
Other scientists agree that the Arctic will warm during the 21ste century.
Michelle McCrystall, a postdoctoral researcher from the University of Manitoba, published a study last November predicting that the Arctic will receive more rain than snow by 2050. Weather stations have already seen the transition from snowfall to the rain.
“What really amazes us is the pace of these changes,” she says.
Mme McCrystall lists a list of possible consequences of increased rainfall in the Arctic: changes in ocean circulation and an increase in water levels and an increase in the presence of phytoplankton. She also warns of climate change at lower latitudes, noting that a powerful snowstorm, nicknamed “the Beast from the East”, which hit Europe in 2018, was caused by the reduction in pack ice in the Barents Sea.
“These are local changes, but they can affect the climate of the northern hemisphere as well. »
This article was produced with the financial support of the Facebook and The Canadian Press News Fellowships.