The Head of State is expected in several Pacific archipelagos from July 24 to 28. He should reaffirm the French presence in the region and listen to local demands.
Five years after his last visit, Emmanuel Macron is back in Nouméa on Monday July 24, from where he will start a tour in the very strategic Indo-Pacific region. From New Caledonia, he will join Vanuatu on Thursday 27, then will complete his trip to Papua New Guinea on Friday. Visit “historical“according to the entourage of the Head of State. The first of a French president “in the Pacific outside our territories” since the visit, in 1966, of Charles de Gaulle to Vanuatu, then called New Hebrides and under Franco-British administration.
Global warming, influence of China, status of New Caledonia… The program awaiting Emmanuel Macron will be as dense as the stakes are high.
In New Caledonia, “bringing together” loyalists and separatists
The President of the Republic lands in Nouméa, New Caledonia. The French territory with autonomous status rejected independence during the three self-determination referendums provided for by the Nouméa agreement, the last of which in 2021, boycotted by the separatists. According to Céline Pajon, researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), “iWe must now send a signal of continued support from Paris, show that the president is listening“in a context of trying negotiations on the future of the archipelago and the question of the enlargement of the electorate.
The Nouméa agreement signed in 1998 provided for an electoral freeze conditioning the vote in local elections on several criteria, in particular a certain number of years of presence in the territory. Today, loyalists are in favor of enlarging the electorate, while separatists remain reluctant to do so. But the agreement must end in 2024, the year of the provincial elections. The need to find a new agreement before these elections comes up against a wall of contradictions between the parties involved. Emmanuel Macron’s visit is intended to be placed under the sign of “gathering” and some “common trust”, according to those around him. The Elysée has promised “to invite the entire Caledonian political representation to discuss [avec le président] of the future statute and the ongoing negotiations” before new negotiations at the end of August in Paris.
Propose an “alternative” to China
Emmanuel Macron should clarify his strategy in the Asia-Pacific region. Posted objective: “reengage France” according to the Elysée, while China is increasing its influence with the island states of this area. Since the 2000s, Beijing has taken advantage of the “disinterest of the great powers for the region to take this vacant place”analyzes researcher Céline Pajon. With the coming to power of Xi Jinping in 2012, China has become essential in the Pacific and has been able to develop its interests there. First for natural resources, especially lithium and fishing. But also because control of Pacific waters could prove decisive in the event of a war with Taiwan.
“The Chinese government has forged close ties with the political elites of these islands. These countries have become indebted to China and become politically and economically dependent.”
Céline Pajon, researcher at Ifriat franceinfo
The signing, in the spring of 2022, of a security treaty between China and the Solomon Islands, historically close to Australia, caused an electric shock in the West, according to the researcher: “The great powers realized that they had lost a lot of ground.” Since then, Westerners have been concerned with maximizing their presence, while one of the clauses of this treaty “ohopens the door to Chinese military forces in the Salomo Islandsnot”. And if China wiped a few months later “a collective refusal of the island states” to which it proposed a five-year plan covering “security, economy, health and climate”according to a note from Ifri, it is still pursuing its quest for influence.
France, thanks to its overseas territories, has the second largest exclusive economic zone in the world after the United States, and intends to land in “alternative” to China. The Elysée hopes for this to support the French presence in the area beyond its embassies alone and to strengthen a “cooperation with all the Pacific States“. Because “France has no specific strategy” in the South Pacific, says Céline Pajon. The United States, for their part, developed a new strategy last year, providing among other things several hundred million dollars in aid to island states. They also organized a summit with the Pacific Islands and are part, with Japan, India and Australia, of the “Quad” cooperation program..
Respond to the region’s climate issues
The Head of State will not be able to ignore the serious concerns of the Pacific Islands, on the front line in the face of global warming. The rising waters are eating away at the coasts and threatening the populations, who are increasingly forced to move inland. The president has also planned a trip on July 25 to Touho, on the east coast of New Caledonia, a symbol of the erosion that is destroying the landscape. Emmanuel Macron’s entourage promises “strong measures“, in particular to allow the territory to adapt. Papua New Guinea, a victim of deforestation, will be “fully integrated into our action”added the Elysée.
By 2100, the sea level could rise by 50 to 70 cm. “During his last trips overseas, the President has always highlighted the importance of these territories for the Indo-Pacific strategy, remembers Celine Pajon, but his interlocutors wanted to talk about their climate and economic issues.” In any case, local elected officials hope for concrete measures.