As the international community gathers in Bonn, Germany, to prepare for the next global climate conference (COP29), a new international scientific study demonstrates that the “carbon budget” that would allow us to limit warming to a viable threshold is on target. the point of being exhausted.
According to the conclusions of this report, global warming attributable to human activity now exceeds 1.3°C, compared to the pre-industrial era, which brings us closer to the threshold of 1.5°C which must not be crossed, according to the Paris Agreement, in order to limit the already very real consequences of climate change. This threshold could be exceeded within 10 years.
The study led by 57 scientists, including collaborators from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), also underlines that humanity’s “carbon budget” is rapidly depleting. This budget represents the quantity of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that can still be emitted before exceeding 1.5°C of warming.
The global average of annual emissions has reached a “record” of 53 billion tonnes for the decade 2013-2022, announce the Global Climate Change Indicators 2024, which has just been put online on the scientific publications site Earth System Science Data.
However, at this rate, the “carbon budget” to hope to have only a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C will be exhausted in just five years, the scientists conclude, putting it at 200 billion tonnes of GHGs.
Such a finding means that the budget is almost exhausted, according to researcher Glen Peters of the Center for International Climate Research, based in Oslo, Norway. In this context, “it is increasingly disturbing to see that GHG emissions continue to increase on a global scale, despite the ambition and efforts of countries,” he underlines.
“Avoid the worst”
“The carbon budget is melting like an ice floe in the sun,” illustrates the head of Greenpeace Canada’s Climate-Energy campaign, Patrick Bonin. “We don’t have time to rely on false solutions like emissions offsetting, carbon capture for tar sands or liquefied natural gas. We must phase out the production and consumption of fossil fuels now, because they delay the transition to renewable energy so that oil and gas companies continue to reap lucrative profits. »
“There is still time to avoid the worst and change our societies so that they are greener, resilient, just, equitable and a source of hope for humanity. To do this, governments, starting with those of rich countries, must stop living in the land of unicorns and listen to science in order to address the climate crisis with all the seriousness it requires,” adds- he.
Assuming that all States on the planet respect their current commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, warming is expected to exceed 2.8°C by 2100, or even 2070. such a scenario would imply a rise in temperatures 4.3°C in southern Quebec and 6.1°C in the north.
This would mean that episodes of extreme heat in summer would be more intense and longer. A decade ago, there was an annual average of three days above 32°C. We could go to more than 20 days by 2040, then to almost 50 days before the end of the century, according to data from the National Institute of Public Health of Quebec.
To try to raise the ambition of the signatory states of the Paris Agreement, the representatives of the countries which will be present at COP29 at the end of this year are meeting until June 13 at the UN Climate headquarters in Bonn . Countries are supposed to present increased climate targets by early 2025. Some developing countries, however, want to condition their decarbonization efforts on the release of public aid from rich countries.
The famous British daily The Guardian published last month an unprecedented survey in which it surveyed 380 authors and collaborators of the IPCC who contributed to the reports produced since 2018. Nearly half of the IPCC collaborators questioned affirm that warming will exceed 3°C.