After three years of post-COVID convalescence, global tourism regained color last year, according to the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), which forecasts a record level of activity in 2024 despite international tensions, particularly in the Near -East.
According to the UN agency based in Madrid, nearly 1.3 billion international tourist arrivals were recorded in 2023 worldwide, compared to around 900 million in 2022 and 450 million in 2021.
This figure is equivalent to 88% of the level of 2019, the last year before the COVID-19 pandemic, specifies the UNWTO in a press release. That year, 1.46 billion international tourists traveled around the world, a record according to the agency.
The recovery was driven in 2023 by strong momentum in the Middle East, where tourist arrivals exceeded the 2019 figure by 22%, but also on the American continent and in Europe, the leading global tourist destination where activity reached 94% of its pre-pandemic level.
The recovery, on the other hand, was weaker than expected in Asia (65% of the 2019 level), despite the lifting of health restrictions decided a year ago in China, including the end of compulsory quarantines for travelers from the abroad, after three years of “zero COVID” policy.
3% of global GDP
Despite this downside, “the latest UNWTO data highlights the resilience and rapid rebound of tourism”, with consequences already visible on “growth” and “jobs”, underlines the Secretary General of UNWTO, Zurab Pololikashvili, quoted in the press release.
According to a preliminary estimate provided by the Madrid agency, revenues generated by international tourism reached US$1,400 billion last year. The economic contribution of tourism, including air traffic, amounted to 3% of global GDP.
This long-awaited recovery by tourism stakeholders should continue over the coming months. According to a first estimate from the UNWTO, tourist arrivals should exceed the 2019 level by 2% this year, a new record.
According to the UN agency, the activity should benefit in particular from the increase in tourism in China thanks to the relaxation of the visa regime for many countries, including France, Germany and Italy, and from the travel of Chinese in other areas of the world.
China was the world’s leading supplier of tourists before the pandemic, with 154 million Chinese having visited other countries, according to the UNWTO. They were also the ones who spent the most, with $255 billion spent in 2019, or 17% of global tourism spending.
Geopolitical and economic risks
The resumption of Chinese tourism should particularly benefit France, the world’s leading tourist destination. The country, which will host the Olympic Games this summer, but also the 80e anniversary of the Landings of June 6, 1944 in Normandy, should receive more than 100 million tourists in 2024, according to the government.
This should also benefit Spain, the second most visited country in the world, with 84 million tourists last year, a new record, according to the executive. “We are well placed to continue on this path in 2024,” underlined the Minister of Tourism, Jordi Hereu, on Friday.
According to the UNWTO, the consolidation of global tourism nevertheless remains dependent on the evolution of “geopolitical risks”, particularly in the Middle East, where tourism is expected to suffer from the consequences of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, and in Ukraine, where the war with Russia is bogged down.
It could also be hurt by economic issues, such as “persistent inflation, high interest rates” and “volatile oil prices”, which could “continue to impact transportation and accommodation costs in 2024.”
A set of factors that could push international tourists to “travel closer to home”, for reasons of economy, concludes the UNWTO.