(New York) The planet should be crisscrossed by just over 50,000 commercial aircraft in 2043, almost double the current fleet, according to forecasts published Friday by the American aircraft manufacturer Boeing.
“The global fleet will double, with almost half of deliveries (of new aircraft) for replacements” of older generation aircraft, the aircraft manufacturer said, before the opening of the Farnborough Air Show (United Kingdom) on Monday.
Of the approximately 26,750 commercial aircraft currently in service (passenger and freight), only 6,195 are expected to still be flying in twenty years.
“The balance between replacement and growth (of the market) is very close, almost 50-50,” with 20,600 and 23,400 planes, respectively, noted Darren Hulst, vice president of marketing for Boeing’s commercial aircraft division, during a conference call with reporters.
In summary, nearly 44,000 new aircraft will have to come off the assembly lines by 2043 to meet demand, including more than 33,000 single-aisle and 8,000 twin-aisle aircraft.
But due to production, quality control and supply problems, the world’s two major manufacturers – Boeing and its European rival Airbus – are experiencing delivery delays and their order books are full until the end of the decade.
The current shortage is estimated at 2,000 aircraft, forcing airlines to extend the operation of their fleets with lower capacities and outdated technical characteristics, particularly in terms of pollutant emissions.
Boeing, however, was optimistic about the ability of manufacturers to supply the necessary volumes.
The number of twin-aisle aircraft is expected to almost double – the largest fleet is expected to be in the Middle East (44%) – and the number of freighters is expected to increase by two-thirds, to 3,900.
Boeing justifies the jump in cargo ships by the explosion of e-commerce (+112% between 2018 and 2023), which led to the emergence of shipping platforms during the pandemic.
According to the aircraft manufacturer, these ship more than 10,000 tonnes of goods daily, which represents the cargo of around a hundred Boeing 777F cargo aircraft.
The fact remains that the global fleet should grow less quickly (+3.2%) than air traffic (+4.7%) because “companies continue to increase productivity” by, among other things, flying more planes.
This is made possible in particular by the fact that the new technologies equipping the new generations of aircraft require less maintenance operations, explained Mr. Hulst.
As a result, the need for maintenance personnel is expected to grow at a slower pace than fleet growth, but maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) services are still expected to represent a $4.4 trillion market in 2043 and employ 85 million people (43 million in 2023).
Airbus, which published its forecast on July 15, also expects the global fleet to double within twenty years.