In a thrilling match, Germany and Italy ended in a 3:3 draw, with Germany conceding a last-minute equalizer. While this result does not affect Germany’s Nations League advancement, it complicates their World Cup seeding due to current FIFA rankings. Germany sits at 10th place and risks facing tougher opponents, especially with a crucial Nations League semifinal approaching. The outcome of upcoming matches will significantly influence their ranking and seeding for the 2026 World Cup.
The Dramatic Equalizer: Germany vs. Italy
In a nail-biting finish, Germany conceded a late equalizer, ending the match against Italy at 3:3 during stoppage time. Although this draw was inconsequential for their advancement to the Nations League semifinals, it holds significant implications for Germany’s positioning in the draw for the 2026 World Cup.
The tense moment arose from Maximilian Mittelstädt’s handball, which led to a penalty for Italy and created a frantic atmosphere for the German national team. Despite the late slip-up, head coach Julian Nagelsmann’s squad successfully secured a spot in the final tournament, offering a glimmer of hope for another enchanting journey for the German Football Association (DFB). After a 2:1 victory in the first leg in Milan, the dramatic collapse in Dortmund during the second leg, where three goals were conceded in the second half, didn’t significantly affect their Nations League ambitions. However, the 3:3 draw could pose challenges for their World Cup preparations.
The Importance of FIFA World Rankings
The crux of the matter lies in the FIFA world rankings, which typically come into play every four years during the World Cup draw. While the exact date for the 2026 World Cup draw, set to take place across the USA, Canada, and Mexico, remains undisclosed, the guidelines for this highly anticipated event are already clear.
This upcoming World Cup will see a record 48 teams participating, leading to the formation of twelve groups instead of eight. As is customary, the host nations are automatically seeded as group heads, irrespective of their world ranking. For instance, Mexico (19th), Canada (31st), and the USA (16th) will occupy the top spots in their respective groups.
The top nine teams in the world rankings will be placed in Pot 1 for the final draw, which currently includes prominent nations like Argentina, France, Spain, England, Brazil, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, and Italy. Should Italy qualify for the World Cup, these teams would lead their groups in the final lottery.
However, Germany finds itself in a precarious position, currently ranked 10th and poised to enter Pot 2 if the draw were conducted today. This scenario raises the risk of facing a strong opponent in the group stage, reminiscent of their encounter with Spain in 2022. If placed in Mexico’s Group A, the DFB would face challenges due to the high-altitude locations of Mexico City and Guadalajara, which could give the hosts a considerable advantage, as noted by sports director Andreas Rettig.
The late equalizer by Italy further complicates matters. Had Germany emerged victorious with a 3:2 scoreline, they would have surpassed Italy in the world rankings. While both teams have exchanged points, Italy remains marginally ahead by just 1.34 points in the upcoming ranking update scheduled for April 3.
The rankings in November or December will play a pivotal role in determining seeding positions for the final draw. By that time, Germany will have played a total of eight matches, including a Nations League semifinal against Portugal and additional World Cup qualifiers.
While the matches against teams like Slovakia, Northern Ireland, and Luxembourg may facilitate World Cup qualification, the final seeding position will largely depend on performances in the Nations League. Since all other participants are ranked higher than Germany, this presents a prime opportunity for the team to climb the rankings through victories against stronger opponents.
Germany’s advancement in the Nations League could prove beneficial, especially with Portugal’s victory over Denmark, which opens up more points for the DFB to gain with a potential win against Cristiano Ronaldo’s team. However, the risk of losing ranking points against top-tier opponents also looms, making participation in the Nations League both a potential boon and a burden for Germany’s World Cup draw aspirations. In essence, while Mittelstädt’s handball may have hindered an immediate leap in the rankings, the path to a favorable seeding position remains viable due to their continued success in the Nations League.