A resource that has become “scarce”: Germany activated Thursday the “alert level” on its gas supply, which brings the country closer to rationing measures after the drastic drop in deliveries from Moscow via the Nord Stream gas pipeline.
“We are in a gas crisis. Gas is now a scarce resource,” Economy Minister Robert Habeck told a press conference.
This is the second stage of the device on the supply of German gas, activated last March following the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.
In this context, the government will be able to “support” market players to deal with high prices.
The third and final stage of this plan based on a European Union model, the “emergency level”, would allow Berlin to organize rationing in order to distribute the volumes between individuals, administrations and industry.
“I hope that will never be the case”, reacted the minister about this nightmarish scenario for the first European economy, whose industrial groups, and in particular the powerful chemical sector, consume immense quantities of gas.
“Economic attack”
Germany is thus reacting to the 60% drop since last week in deliveries via Nord Stream, the Russian group Gazprom arguing that there is a maintenance problem for the gas pipeline.
But for the German government, it is a “political decision”, an “economic attack” intended to weigh in the showdown between Moscow and Western countries.
This decision had a heavy impact on several European countries, in particular Germany, Italy and France. Sweden this week moved to a “pre-alert” level on gas.
For Berlin, which continues to import 35% of its gas from Russia, against 55% before the war, the situation is “serious”.
“We are going through a gas crisis”, underlined Mr. Habeck who multiplies the calls to save this resource, both among individuals and in the economic sector.
For the moment, reserves in Germany are at 58%, a level “higher than the average of recent years”.
But if deliveries via Nordstream “remain at a low level”, filling the tanks for the winter is not guaranteed.
“Everything is going well at the moment, but that should not make us forget that in the current state of things, everything will go wrong in the future”, summarized the minister, a figure of the environmentalist party.
According to the assessments of the Federal Network Agency, without a limitation of gas exports – difficult to defend on a European level – Germany will not achieve this objective.
If nothing changes, a gas shortage could start as early as February 2023. In the event of a total stoppage of deliveries by Moscow, it could happen as early as “mid-December”.
Scenario “à la Lehman Brothers”
These are not the first emergency measures taken by Germany.
The government of Olaf Scholz, with ambitious climate objectives, has already caused a sensation by announcing an increased use of coal to save gas, which represented 15% of the electricity produced in 2021.
The nuclear debate, which former Chancellor Angela Merkel decided to abandon after the Fukushima disaster in 2011, has also been revived, even if the ruling coalition is fiercely opposed to it.
The last three reactors in the country will be shut down at the end of the year. Their extension could “create a breathing space”, thus declared Thursday Veronika Grimm, member of the influential economic “wise men”, who advise the government.
Berlin also announced the opening of a credit line of fifteen billion euros via the public bank KfW to finance the purchase of gas, whose prices have soared, by the actor responsible for purchases for Germany , Trading Hub Europe.
Robert Habeck has also affirmed that the government “monitors” the rise in gas prices, and does not rule out using a “price regulation mechanism”.
The objective is to avoid a “Lehman Brothers” scenario which would see suppliers stop buying gas that has become too expensive and therefore no longer deliver to customers, according to the minister.
Since the start of the war in Ukraine at the end of February, Berlin has also been seeking new sources of supply, notably via American or Qatari liquefied gas.