As Donald Trump’s second term approaches, German business groups express concerns about potential trade challenges, warning of increased protectionism. The US is a vital market for German exports, and tariffs could severely impact the economy. While some advocate for technological independence and market diversification, others urge a unified EU response and the exploration of alternative markets. Strengthening transatlantic relations while collaborating within the EU is seen as essential for navigating the uncertain trading landscape ahead.
German Businesses Brace for Challenges Ahead of Trump’s Second Term
As Donald Trump’s second presidency approaches, German business groups are voicing their concerns about a potentially turbulent trading environment. The German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) is advising the nation to prepare for increased protectionism and heightened trade barriers. DIHK President Peter Adrian emphasized to Reuters that “trade with the US is likely to become significantly more difficult.”
Impact on the German Economy
The United States stands as a crucial export destination for German enterprises, with exports reaching nearly 136 billion euros from January to October 2024, surpassing all other markets. This figure represents over ten percent of Germany’s total exports, underscoring the importance of maintaining strong trade relations.
Adrian warns that if Trump implements broad import tariffs, it could spell disaster for the German economy, especially in an already strained global market. The digital sector is also on alert, with a survey by Bitkom revealing that 79 percent of tech companies perceive a decline in trust toward the US, and 78 percent anticipate negative repercussions for Germany’s economy due to Trump’s election.
Ralf Wintergerst, president of Bitkom, asserts that Germany must enhance its technological and economic independence to remain a formidable player on the global stage. He stresses the urgency to reverse the growing dependency on the US and advocates for a more resilient and opportunity-driven approach.
Despite these concerns, Dirk Jandura, president of the Federal Association of Wholesale, Foreign Trade, Services (BGA), urges against panic. He believes the US will continue to be a vital partner and that Trump’s negotiating style may provide leverage. However, he acknowledges that tariffs on EU imports would adversely affect Germany, especially in the context of a potential trade conflict between the US and China.
To navigate these challenges, Jandura calls for unity within the EU and a proactive stance from the next federal government to identify common goals with the US. He emphasizes the necessity for the EU to diversify its markets and foster free trade.
In light of these potential trade conflicts, the Association of Family Entrepreneurs advises exploring alternative markets to mitigate risks. Marie-Christine Ostermann, the association’s president, advocates for strengthening transatlantic relations while simultaneously collaborating more closely within the EU. Identifying shared interests with the US, particularly concerning China, may present opportunities for cooperation.