The Quebec labor market begins 2022 under high tension.
Contrary to the phenomenon measured in the United States, there is no “Great Resignation” in Quebec. At least, the available data does not suggest that there would have been more voluntary retirements in 2021, writes Mia Homsy, CEO of the Institut du Québec (IDQ), in the report. 2021 report on employment in Quebec: Sectoral transformations and skills deficit in sight released Thursday.
Thus, the overall portrait of the 2021 balance sheet indicates that “between December 2020 and December 2021, workers massively returned to employment (+156,900) and the number of unemployed fell (-94,900)”. However, the pandemic will have led to well-felt shifts from one industry to another. From sectors harder hit by health restrictions to more stable ones like education, professional services, finance and insurance, and public administration.
Tension therefore remains strong in the labor market. Moreover, the data published Wednesday by the Institut de la statistique du Québec (ISQ) indicate that the number of jobs in Quebec reached 4,269,000 in 2021, an increase of 169,400 or 4.1% compared to compared to a year 2020 which had suffered a drop of 208,500 jobs. There were around 280,000 people unemployed last year, compared to almost 400,000 in 2020, and the number of job vacancies has exploded by some 50% compared to 2019 to reach an average of 193,000 in the first three quarters. .
There will be many issues in 2022. First, the issue of salary increases. According to the ISQ, the average hourly compensation of Quebec employees increased by 2.2% last year, to $28.81. We are talking about a progression that is far from showing the strength of an economic recovery amplifying the effect of labor scarcity, sectoral shortages and an inflationary surge. The Institut du Québec points out that salary increases accelerated at the end of the year to show an average annual variation of 3.4%, but…
Real wages, net of inflation, have steadily increased in Quebec since the financial crisis of 2008-2009. However, the trend has reversed during the pandemic. And although wages have been growing faster since mid-2021, their growth remains below that of inflation, underlines the IdQ.
Another issue concerns the ability of businesses to meet their labor needs and retain their employees. “The catering, accommodation and retail sectors may face persistent recruitment difficulties, and may even be forced to review their business model and work organization well beyond the pandemic. . »
In order to meet their recruitment difficulties, many employers are lowering their hiring requirements, particularly in terms of education. Statistics Canada made a highlight in December. From November 2019 to November 2021, overall employment in occupations that usually require a university education increased by 12.3%. Meanwhile, the number of workers in these types of jobs who have a high school diploma or less has increased by 43.4%.
In other words, “among workers who recently started a job that usually requires a university education, the proportion of them who had a high school diploma or less rose to 9.6% in November, up compared to 4% in November 2019”. This is not without raising the imperative of compensatory training in the course of employment, failing which it could result in risks in terms of the competitiveness of companies, believes the IdQ.
Added to this are the repercussions of the hybrid formula that is being imposed on the labor market. “Jobs that don’t allow for this flexibility could lose popularity with workers. »
And if Quebec is not affected by the “Great Resignation”, it is nonetheless faced with a significant drop in the activity rate in the segment of so-called experienced workers, ie those aged 55 and over. We observe in this group that the situation of women is worrying, since they are much more numerous (-25,700) than men (-9,400) to have left the labor force since December 2019. “If many decide to take advantage of the situation to withdraw definitively, to bring them back to meet labor needs will represent a major challenge,” writes the IdQ.
There remains the phenomenon of the aging of the population and the need for highly qualified workers set to intensify with, at the same time, nearly one employee in five occupying a job that presents a high risk of automation.