General Motors has a long history of pursuing autonomous vehicles, dating back to the 1939 World Expo. However, recent shifts in strategy have led the company to re-evaluate its Cruise robotaxi project, deciding to buy out minority shareholders and refocus on enhancing driver assistance technologies. Despite significant investments, safety concerns and market competition have hindered progress. While GM steps back, competitors like Waymo and Baidu continue to advance in the autonomous vehicle space, exploring various technologies and strategies.
The Evolution of General Motors’ Autonomous Vehicle Dream
For 85 years, General Motors (GM) has envisioned a future filled with autonomous vehicles. This dream took root during the iconic “Futurama” exhibit at the 1939 World Expo, where GM boldly predicted that by the late 1950s, cars would be able to navigate safely and autonomously using radio waves on new highways. While the timeline proved overly optimistic, recent developments had rekindled hopes that this vision was closer than ever.
GM Shifts Focus: The End of the Cruise Robotaxi Dream
On Tuesday evening, however, GM made a significant announcement that dashed those dreams. The Detroit-based automotive giant revealed plans to revamp its Cruise robotaxi initiative. The company intends to buy out minority shareholders, who collectively own about 10 percent of Cruise, and leverage their insights to enhance its own driver assistance technologies. Moving forward, teams from Cruise and GM will collaborate more closely, allowing drivers to rely on automated systems more frequently, though they will still need to keep their eyes on the road.
The market reacted negatively to this news, with GM’s shares dropping by over 2 percent at one point during the day. Over the past decade, GM has poured nearly 10 billion dollars into the development of Cruise. However, the company now believes that the timeline and costs associated with bringing the robotaxis to market have become prohibitively high, especially in light of increasing competition in the field.
Financially, GM stands to gain from halting its Cruise project, saving a significant portion of the nearly 2 billion dollars it spends annually on development. Meanwhile, GM’s core business has been thriving, solidifying its status as America’s largest car manufacturer while other competitors, such as Stellantis, face turmoil, including a recent CEO replacement.
In the past decade, advancements in computer chips, sensors, and software transformed autonomous vehicles from distant dreams into achievable goals. Numerous tech and automotive companies have invested heavily in the quest to launch self-driving vehicles. In 2016, GM acquired the startup Cruise for around one billion dollars, with ambitions to deploy its own robotaxi fleets within a short timeframe.
Despite the investment, many skeptics have pointed out that the rollout of self-driving cars has consistently been “one to two years away” but has faced continuous delays, primarily due to safety concerns and public acceptance challenges.
While autonomous vehicles may already outperform human drivers in many scenarios, they still face risks in exceptional situations, as evidenced by Uber’s decision to suspend its autonomous vehicle project following a tragic accident in 2018.
Cruise’s journey has also been marred by accidents. Although it began offering paid taxi services in San Francisco in 2022, the company faced multiple collisions that raised alarms about safety. Consequently, California prohibited Cruise from operating on its roads again in 2023.
As GM steps back, other innovators continue to pursue the autonomous vehicle dream. Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet, leads the way with its self-driving cars already operating in cities like Los Angeles, Austin, San Francisco, and Phoenix. Equipped with advanced sensors, particularly Lidar, Waymo’s vehicles are still too costly to replace traditional cars in the near future.
In China, Baidu operates 500 robotaxis under the “Apollo Go” brand, primarily in Wuhan. Recently, they received permission to test their vehicles in Hong Kong, with aspirations to expand into Singapore and the Middle East. Like Waymo, Baidu utilizes Lidar but aims to reduce costs to below 30,000 dollars soon.
Tesla, under Elon Musk’s leadership, is taking a different route by forgoing Lidar in favor of a system that combines standard cameras with powerful AI software. This approach could lead to more affordable production of robotaxis. However, whether these vehicles can navigate traffic as safely as those equipped with Lidar remains to be seen. Tesla aims to launch its robotaxi for mass production by 2027, contingent on regulatory approvals.