G7 summit, waiting for the real earthquake

The annual meeting of G7 leaders is inevitably accompanied, on each occasion, by endless questions about the merits and relevance of this partnership. This year’s was no exception, in this era of increasing popularity of extremes. The summit organized in Italy, this breeding ground of the European radical right, will on the contrary have largely deflated the alarmism of certain defeatists. The common fronts have survived, for the most part, the dichotomy of the ideologies of the seven leaders. At least, for now.

Certainly, the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, an ultraconservative, opposed the fact that the final communiqué of the summit defended, like that of last year, the “full respect” of “access to safe and legal abortion “. The declaration by the leaders of the seven economic powers this time stuck to supporting “sexual and reproductive rights”. A sad setback, access to abortion being non-existent in too many countries, but now also precarious where it was nevertheless protected. The host of the meeting, who presents herself as a “Christian mother”, put her stamp on the beliefs of her colleagues.

But beyond this question of health and free choice, Prime Minister Meloni has not shattered the consensus. The Group of Seven will offer Ukraine a loan of 50 billion US dollars (first assumed by the United States, but to which Canada will contribute 5 billion), guaranteed by the interest earned on the 300 billion euros of Russian assets frozen and seized. US President Joe Biden also announced a ten-year security agreement for kyiv, more concrete support than the discussions that followed at the Swiss peace summit. Support for the American proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza also still holds. In terms of migration, a theme which Giorgia Meloni had made a central axis of the summit, the G7 leaders agreed at most to fight against irregular movements and criminal networks of clandestine crossings. The far-right politician’s harsh anti-migrant speech has clearly calmed down.

The results of the European elections obtained in France and Germany, where the National Rally and the radical right Alternative for Germany (AfD) finished first and second respectively, had shaken things up, a few days before the opening of the summit. The risky bet of the surprise triggering of legislative elections by the French president, Emmanuel Macron, just as much. Italy’s presidency of the G7 this year, however, shows that domestic tensions do not necessarily derail the unity of members’ international alliances. No more than the disagreements between leaders, which shake up, but which do not separate the leaders (apart from the expulsion of Russia because of the invasion of Crimea, obviously).

The past has clearly demonstrated this. In 1985, in particular, when François Mitterrand threatened to leave the Group of Seven for good, fiercely opposed to new multilateral trade negotiations, before being convinced by Brian Mulroney to stay there (and to agree the following year to these same talks). “Even when they have strong political or personal antipathy, G7 leaders know well that they will fail if they do not unite to face common threats,” observes Professor John Kirton, an expert on these summits since over 25 years old.

The imperialist aims of Russia and China, as well as the urgent climate challenge, are no exception. Donald Trump, on the other hand, deviates from this consistency. The former and possible next president of the United States alone threatens to further destroy the G7, NATO and other groupings.

The Republican candidate’s disinterest in international cooperation is notorious. His disavowal of the summit of Charlevoix, as soon as he had left by air, had pitifully demonstrated this. That he would not even dare to organize one in turn during his own presidency, even if only virtually, under the pretext of a pandemic, eloquently confirmed this.

The Borgo Egnazia summit, in Puglia, was a thousand miles from this contempt for multilateral dialogue. Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, guest of Mme Meloni even spoke there, although very briefly, with Joe Biden and Justin Trudeau, whose governments accused his of having fomented the assassination of Sikh activists on their territory. Donald Trump, for his part, who has proudly presented himself as a global bully rather than a wise diplomat, does not even see the point in talking to his own allies.

The meeting in Italy probably had an air of nostalgia for the leaders of the G7 countries, because apart from a few disagreements, it went more smoothly than the tumult that could be in store for them, depending on the outcome of the American election, the next summit, which is planned for Kananaskis, Alberta. At least, for the leaders who will still be there in a year.

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