(Tokyo) Fumio Kishida, the Prime Minister of Japan since 2021, really did not need the latest financial scandal splashing his party: his popularity was already very low, due to an unremarkable domestic policy and numerous previous scandals.
As soon as he came to power, Mr. Kishida, 66, appeared as a compromise choice by the Liberal Democratic Party (PLD, conservative right).
As he only led a small moderate parliamentary faction of the PLD, he must constantly give pledges to other more powerful currents of his party, in particular its ultranationalist wing which was controlled by his former mentor and ex-prime minister Shinzo Abe until his assassination in 2022.
Mr. Kishida “is not seen as someone who communicates clearly or acts resolutely,” summarizes James Brady of the Teneo firm, interviewed by AFP. “The public just doesn’t think he’s a leader.”
PHOTO EUGENE HOSHIKO, ASSOCIATED PRESS
The post-pandemic economic recovery in the country has not been vigorous and the purchasing power of Japanese households is at half mast.
“Although he has made strong and controversial decisions to satisfy certain groups within the LDP, he seems very weak and hesitant when it comes to implementing them,” also notes Kensuke Takayasu, a Japanese political scientist interviewed by AFP .
In economics, behind its high-sounding slogan of “new capitalism”, it has in reality only extended the old Japanese recipe of massive budgetary recovery plans.
But these measures are diluted by the inflationary shock in the archipelago since the surge in global energy prices in 2022, and by the fall of the yen, linked to the maintenance of the ultra-accommodating monetary policy of the Bank of Japan.
In fact, the post-pandemic economic recovery in the country has not been vigorous and the purchasing power of Japanese households is at half mast.
“Binoclard which increases taxes”
Mr. Kishida also promised to tackle the fundamental problem of the country’s accelerated population decline.
But his project mainly consists of strengthening family allowances, while many observers believe that the low birth rate is also the consequence of a rigid conception of parenthood, work and gender relations in Japanese society.
However, on societal issues, Mr. Kishida is very cautious, like the ultranationalist faction of the PLD: no gay marriage on the horizon in Japan, nor systematic shared custody of children in the event of divorce for example.
In domestic politics, his most notable decisions to date are the relaunch of nuclear power, a sector still recovering in Japan since the Fukushima disaster in 2011, and the record increase in the Defense budget in the face of a regional and global geopolitical context. very degraded.
Mr. Kishida was recently given the unfriendly nickname in Japan of “tax-raising binoculars”, linked to the vagueness he maintains over the financing of his costly programs.
In foreign policy, the provisional assessment of this former head of Japanese diplomacy under Shinzo Abe is more significant: firm and immediate condemnation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and sanctions against Moscow, improvement of links between Tokyo and Seoul. As for relations with China, they alternate between phases of tension and openness, as before.
Flying squadron scandals
Mr. Kishida’s agenda has been regularly polluted by scandals affecting the LDP and members of his government, eroding his own popularity rating.
The assassination of Abe in July 2022 by a man who wanted revenge on the Unification Church, better known as the “Moon sect”, notably led to cascading revelations about the close links of this organization religious with elected representatives of the PLD.
The controversial state funeral that Mr. Kishida subsequently ordered for Shinzo Abe added fuel to the fire.
“More than the nature of the scandals themselves, it is the way in which (Mr. Kishida) responds to them which has constantly damaged his image”, by dint of constantly wanting to spare the goats and the cabbage within the PLD, according to Mr. Brady.
Despite everything, this unwavering elected official from Hiroshima (western Japan) since 1993, like his father and grandfather before him, could remain in power at least until the next elections for the presidency of the PLD in September 2024.
He has no strong competitor facing him at the moment within the party. The Prime Minister is also not obliged to call legislative elections before the fall of 2025, and the parliamentary opposition remains weak and fragmented.