For the government, it is a high-risk week which opens on the social ground. While the situation is still tense in service stations, affected by shortages, the executive will have to face an interprofessional movement, Tuesday, October 18, just before the first departures on vacation three days later. “It is the great conjunction between popular mobilization, an institutional crisis and social mobilization”warned Jean-Luc Mélenchon on Sunday, during a march against the high cost of living organized by the Nupes.
Here are the various files that weigh down the room for maneuver of the ministers.
A still tense situation at the pump
The situation is improving, drop by drop, in service stations. But it is far from settled. In the meantime, and while the strike caused prices to jump at the pump, the Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, announced the extension of the rebate of 30 centimes per liter until November 15, which was to drop to 10 centimes from from the beginning of the month. For its part, TotalEnergies has confirmed the extension of its discount of 20 centimes per liter also until mid-November.
But the question of requisitions has taken a symbolic and political turn. The government took action on two fuel depots on Monday in Mardyck (Nord) and Feyzin (Rhône). “We don’t do it against the strikers”, assured Agnès Pannier-Runacher, Minister of Energy Transition. Before adding that these requisitions “are absolutely necessary so that people can continue to go to work and meet their basic needs”. The Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, for his part raised his voice, affirming on BFMTV that it was necessary “liberate fuel depots and refineries”.
Attrition is palpable among the population. But this government choice has “set fire to the powder in the country”, responds on franceinfo Emmanuel Lépine, secretary general of the Professional Petroleum Federation of the CGT, which represents Esso and Total stations. The requisitions and “the defense of the right to strike” are also on the agenda of the general mobilization on Tuesday.
Mobilization and risk of contagion
The week will be marked on Tuesday by the interprofessional movement, at the call of the CGT, FO, Solidaires, the FSU and several youth organizations (Fidl, MNL, Unef and High School Life). Obviously, the government will closely monitor this day of action, organized as an extension of the movement of workers in the oil industry.
The number of strikers and the size of the movement will be taken into account – Philippe Martinez, the general secretary of the CGT, called for “generalize the strike”. But also a possible continuation of the movement in the coming days. “We will ask the question of the renewable strike” during general meetings, has already declared Fabien Villedieu, SUD-Rail union representative. Railway workers can expect that the approach of the All Saints holidays encourages the management of the SNCF to negotiate. What give cold sweats in the ministries. “No one knows which way the coin will fallexplains a ministerial adviser to franceinfo. Will it remain punctual or is it the beginning of a lasting blockage of the country?
Nevertheless, many prefer to put the scope of the event into perspective. “There is not that much concern, if it remains concentrated on one or two days”, slips another ministerial adviser. He also mentions a flop about the march against high prices organized on Sunday by the Nupes, but adds: “The fear is to see ‘yellow vests’ appear. But as long as it remains ‘multicolored’ in the processions, and that the demonstrators do not put on the costume of light, do not worry.”
A minister also minimizes the holding of the interprofessional day: “Vigilance, of course, but I don’t sense a common front. There is no united trade union front either.”
Inflation that undermines household morale
“The context is difficult, it is a conflict against a background of weariness and with galloping inflation”concedes a ministerial adviser. “The conjunction of these different elements is that power is in front of something complicated to manage. The climate is flammable.” The government put in place a little over a year ago (end of September 2021) a tariff shield which has so far limited the rise in electricity prices to 4% and frozen those of gas. But the measure is insufficient for households with tight budgets, warn the associations.
Consumer prices rose 5.6% year on year in September (vs. 5.9% in August). However, inflation on food products alone, to which the most modest households devote a larger share of their income, accelerated in one year: it was 7.9% in August, it rose to 9, 9% in September.
A possible recourse to article 49.3
While the social week is already busy, the battle is still raging in the National Assembly. The deputies resume the examination of the draft budget 2023, while the government is preparing to use the constitutional weapon of 49.3 to force the adoption of the revenue part. More than 2,000 amendments remain to be examined, out of the more than 3,400 tabled, starting with the Nupes proposal to reinstate the ISF. And big topics are yet to come, such as the taxation of superprofits.
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The government has already been beaten many times: the key objective of containing the public deficit to 5% of GDP in 2023 has been erased, the “exit tax” concerning the tax exile of entrepreneurs has been restored and credits tax have been voted for all residents in nursing homes or for the energy renovation of housing. The debates around the 2023 budget are bogged down and the authority of the executive is even contested within its own majority.
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Before committing to 49.3, however, the government must take into account the context of social mobilization. “It is better to solve the problem of TotalEnergies refineries” before bringing the government’s responsibility into play, underlines a government source to AFP. The motions of censure announced by the Nupes and the RN are already ready, but they have little chance of being adopted. It remains to know the political cost of such an appeal, before moving on to a pension reform that looks like a powder keg.