“We have to think of other alternatives and find other suppliers for gas and oil“because of the war in Ukraine, estimated on franceinfo Saturday February 26 Raphaël Boroumand. The professor of economics and energy specialist judges that the invasion of Ukraine by Russia could “be reflected in several weeks on the price of fuel”even if France “has the equivalent of three months of consumption in strategic stocks”.
>> Follow the evolution of the situation in Ukraine in our direct
franceinfo: What could be the immediate impact of the war in Ukraine on our energy supply?
Raphael Boroumand: Regarding oil, Russia is among the top three exporters and producers in the world – with between 11 and 12% of world production. It is one of the leading exporters to Europe, with between 2 and 2.5 million barrels delivered. If the conflict continues, the price of oil will increase. It has already reached close to $100 a barrel, the highest level since 2015, and could reach $115 or $120. Mechanically, this is likely to be reflected in several weeks on the price of fuels.
It is a major player in the market but the offer could be compensated by the actors of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) if they decide to increase their production quotas, after a meeting which must take place on March 2. There is information circulating on a relatively low level of increase, around 400,000 barrels per day. This would be insufficient in the event of supply disruptions, if there were for example sanctions removing the possibility of importing oil from Russia.
What about the gas supply?
The main gas exporter to the European Union is Russia, but the situation varies from country to country. Countries like Germany, Austria or the Baltic countries depend more than 50 or 60% on Russian gas – which can pose a major problem – while in France the dependence is up to 17% to 20%. . France is therefore less exposed than other European countries because its main supplier is Norway, up to 35%. The countries most at risk are those furthest east, since gas is difficult to transport.
Are there any risks of supply disruption?
France, thanks to its other suppliers, is less exposed for gas. Regarding oil, it has the equivalent of three months of consumption in strategic stocks. If really Russia were to be excluded in terms of gas and oil supplies, which is not yet on the agenda, this could create disruption but not to the point of having a fuel shortage in France given the level of strategic stocks. The government is already working on options to diversify its gas and oil supplies. Russia also needs these resources: 15% of Russian GDP depends solely on gas exported to Europe. There is a real form of interdependence. Russia really never cut gas supplies, even during the most tense times, notably in 2014.
Are we likely to see further price increases?
It is always difficult to predict the future in times of great uncertainty. The price of oil has increased by 20% since mid-January. The prices that we currently see on fuels do not reflect current oil prices but those of four or five weeks ago. […] Insofar as the conflict is likely to last, oil at 100 dollars [le baril] is likely to last. This means an increase of about 7 to 10 cents in fuel prices over the next few weeks.
Could the sanctions against Russia also cause supply difficulties?
If there are extensive sanctions, especially banking sanctions, that would mean that Russian gas can no longer be purchased, since Russia will be completely excluded from the Swift international financial system. We must therefore think of other alternatives and find other suppliers for gas and oil. The government is thinking about it. There is also the option of liquefied natural gas which could come from Australia, the United States or Qatar. It would be, for technical and economic reasons, much more expensive.