From the United States to France, Western countries call on Iran not to attack Israel

In the Middle East, the Iranian threat against Israel is becoming more precise. The United States fears major attacks “as early as this week”. Since the assassination of the Hamas leader at the end of July, Tehran has promised to retaliate. Washington and its allies are asking it to give up.

John Kirby, the White House national security spokesman, rarely speaks lightly. But he made his point very clearly on Monday, August 12.We must prepare for a series of significant attacks on Israel” he explained, before adding “maybe as early as this week“.

“And if that happens, we will continue to help the Israelis defend themselves.“Words follow actions. On Sunday the Pentagon ordered the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincolnso far on a mission in the Pacific, to accelerate its deployment in the region. A missile-launching submarine, Georgiacurrently positioned in the Eastern Mediterranean, is due to join it soon.

The United States is not the only one trying to calm Tehran’s ardor. A certain frenzy has indeed taken hold of the chancelleries, the aim being to avoid escalation towards a regional conflict. Joe Biden has also published a statement with his French, German, Italian and British counterparts in which they all ask Tehran to renounce implementing reprisals. The British and German leaders even spoke directly to the Iranian president on the phone. Massoud Pezeshkian replied that his country never gives in to pressure and that in accordance with international standards it is “entitled to respond” to an assault.

On Tuesday, August 13, to set the record straight, Iran rejected the call from Western countries, stating that it was not asking for “authorisation“to retaliate against his sworn enemy whom he accuses of having assassinated the leader of Palestinian Hamas Ismail Haniyeh on his soil.

What can we expect? Either strikes launched from Iranian territory. Remember, in April, Tehran already attacked Israel with a swarm of 300 drones and missiles, in response to an attack on its embassy. It was not enough to overwhelm the defenses of the Jewish state.
Or more likely to attacks launched by its proxies. Those called Iran’s “proxies”, which act as extensions of Iranian interests, without officially being Iranian armed forces. First and foremost, the Lebanese Hezbollah, a Shiite group that benefits from substantial military, financial and logistical support from Iran. It is involved in numerous military and political actions. Exchanges of fire on the border are already daily occurrences.

But also the Houthi rebels, who in Yemen have received assistance in the form of weapons, training and military advice from Iran, and are able to easily reach targets close to the Red Sea as far north as Israel.

In anticipation of the attacks, Israeli authorities have asked people to store water and food in secure rooms, rescue teams have already been deployed and hospitals have planned to transfer their patients to underground wards.

What President Pezeshkian, who is considered a reformer, is trying to do is to calibrate his response to Israel while avoiding starting an all-out war against a powerful adversary. Nor does he want to cut ties with the West. His goal remains the easing of economic sanctions. Iran does not want to isolate itself further on the international stage.