Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer’s controversial strategy appears successful, as he is tasked with forming a government despite his ÖVP party’s significant election loss. This marks a departure from tradition, with Federal President Van der Bellen not selecting the leading party for coalition talks. The FPÖ, led by Herbert Kickl, was the election’s big winner, yet many voters oppose collaboration with them. Nehammer faces challenges in government negotiations amid his party’s declining support and upcoming regional elections that could intensify pressure.
Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer’s bold approach seems to be yielding results, at least for now. Although his conservative party, the ÖVP, experienced significant losses in the National Council elections at the end of September, Nehammer has been tasked by Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen to form a new government, signaling his opportunity to retain his position.
In a shift from tradition, the leader of the party that garnered the most votes is not the one charged with establishing a majority. The FPÖ, under Herbert Kickl, emerged as the primary victor in the elections, leading Kickl to criticize Van der Bellen’s decision. He described the situation as a “black day for democracy” and branded the expected coalition a “coalition of losers.”
For strategic reasons, Nehammer suggested that Kickl should get the first opportunity to form a coalition, making it harder for the FPÖ to paint itself as a victim of the political “system.” Ultimately, the President provided Kickl with time to negotiate, but he had to convey that no party was willing to collaborate with him after the election, contradicting his earlier assertions.
Voter Sentiment Is Not as Clear-Cut as Kickl Claims
Nehammer stated, “The radical forces have taken themselves out of the game,” asserting that the FPÖ cannot secure a parliamentary majority under Kickl’s leadership. The Chancellor emphasized the importance of compromise and collaboration, as the electoral will is not as straightforward as Kickl suggests. Despite the clear FPÖ victory, over 70 percent of voters cast ballots for parties that categorically ruled out working with him.
This was especially surprising regarding the ÖVP. The conservatives are currently in coalition with the FPÖ in three of Austria’s nine states, with a possible fourth emerging in Vorarlberg. Historically, the ÖVP formed a coalition with the FPÖ in 2017 under Sebastian Kurz, collaborating smoothly until the Ibiza scandal erupted.
During that time, Kurz appointed Kickl as Interior Minister, granting the FPÖ oversight of civilian security authorities, a move criticized due to the party’s associations with far-right extremists and proximity to Russia. This decision led to the estrangement between the ÖVP and Kickl, exacerbated by the FPÖ’s dismantling of the ÖVP’s longstanding influence in the Ministry of the Interior, culminating in a raid that severely damaged Austria’s intelligence service reputation.
The Ibiza incident triggered a reciprocal fallout: Kurz dismissed Kickl as Interior Minister, despite Kickl’s lack of involvement in the scandal, resulting in the coalition’s collapse and a lasting division between the two entities.
Nehammer’s unique position is notable; he previously served as ÖVP Secretary General during the black-blue coalition and defended Kickl in parliament against multiple motions of censure. In the second Kurz government, Nehammer felt firsthand the disruptions caused by Kickl’s leadership, including the weakened Office for the Protection of the Constitution.
Clear Hostilities Between Nehammer and Kickl
The pandemic further deepened the rift between the two leaders. In a pre-election debate, Kickl remarked that a previously cordial relationship had soured due to Nehammer’s perceived authoritarian handling of the coronavirus crisis. Kickl accused the Chancellor of betraying the public and leading a “totalitarian state of emergency”.
Nehammer, while critical, has taken a more measured stance, describing Kickl as leading a party radicalized by conspiracy theories, presenting a security risk to the country. In discussions, Nehammer has implied that Kickl lacks the capability to effectively lead, clearly indicating a mutual disdain between the two, as seen during an election debate where Nehammer barely acknowledged Kickl’s presence.
Despite significant ideological overlap, cooperation between the two parties under their current leadership seems implausible. Given Kickl’s electoral victory, expecting him to step back is unrealistic, especially considering past splits within the FPÖ following similar maneuvers by former leader Jörg Haider.
For now, Nehammer maintains support within his party despite declining voter appeal, recently receiving unanimous backing from the executive board. His stabilization of the chancellorship appears solid, showing he is gradually finding his footing, and unlike Kurz, there is no apparent successor looming.
However, negotiations with the SPÖ, which has taken a leftward turn under Andreas Babler, promise to be challenging, owing to pressing economic and budgetary reforms needed. Dissent regarding Nehammer’s strategy is emerging from business sectors as well, putting pressure on him to swiftly achieve tangible results. With Styria’s upcoming elections potentially elevating the FPÖ to new prominence, time is of the essence for Nehammer.
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