(Paris) Several things can influence voters in view of the second round of the French presidential election. First, the performance of the candidates during their debate on April 20, four days before the vote.
Posted at 6:00 a.m.
But four crises that France has experienced in recent years will strongly influence the choice of Marine Le Pen or Emmanuel Macron.
Economic crisis
We could say the crisis of yellow vests which began in November 2018, therefore from the second year of Emmanuel Macron’s mandate. Triggered by an increase in the tax on energy products, it would come to cover all sorts of demands, from speed limits on the roads to Macron’s abolition of the tax on large fortunes, which was to give him the image of the “president of the rich” which he never completely succeeded in getting rid of.
Economic insecurity – caused by inflation and rising energy prices, among other things – has been Mr.me Le Pen during the first-round campaign.
Mr Macron has said his plan to fight inflation is superior to that of his opponent, but he will now have to prove it. Above all, he will have to prove that he really cares about the “expensive life” of which the voters complain.
And it is no coincidence that the first release of Mme Le Pen yesterday was in rural areas to say she feared inflation would drive up food prices.
Advantage: Le Pen
The health crisis
It is no coincidence that it took the start of the COVID-19 pandemic for the claims of the yellow vests to end. But the pandemic brought its own protests that still reverberate today. The health crisis has shown the weaknesses of the French health system. The slaughter in the EHPAD – the French CHSLDs – and the many difficulties encountered in the hospitals obviously go to the liabilities of the outgoing president.
But it is above all the discontent against the “sanitary pass” – a vaccination passport – which has turned into a political movement. Mr. Macron then made the mistake of saying that he wanted to find a way “to piss off the non-vaccinated”, who have not forgotten him and still resent him.
Advantage (modest): Le Pen
The climate crisis
This is one of the main concerns of the French. But this was not an important topic in the first-round campaign and, according to Greenpeace France, there were only two candidates who had an interesting program on the issue, namely Jean-Luc Mélenchon and environmentalist Yannick Jadot – but none will be on the ballot for the second round. But it is said a lot that in any case, even with the presence of an environmentalist candidate, this question only rarely becomes “the question of the voting booth”, the one that all voters think of when going to vote.
But voters who see the environment as a major issue are not voting on the right, where the issue seems to be completely overlooked. Those who considered the issue to be major mostly voted Mélenchon.
In the voting booth, in the second round, that will no doubt mean that these voters could either abstain or vote Macron, because the outgoing president may not be a great doer, but at least he talks about the topic once in a while.
Even with an alarming IPCC report saying the next three years will be decisive, the issue has remained the poor relation of this campaign. With sometimes an agreement in principle with the IPCC and a complete divergence as to the means.
Advantage (modest): Macron
The Ukrainian crisis
Before the start of the campaign, Marine Le Pen had printed leaflets with a photo where she appeared with Vladimir Poutine, just to show that she had her entrances on the international scene. They were quietly destroyed.
Still, the past admiration of Mme Le Pen for ruler of the Kremlin is well established and that his 2017 campaign was, in part, funded by a loan from a Russian bank. It is difficult today to criticize a former ally, especially since we have congratulated the leaders of other recently re-elected countries, such as Hungary and Serbia, which are allies of Russia.
On this, Mr. Macron’s position is very clear and, as President-in-Office, it is he who is at the forefront of the opposition of Western countries to the war in Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions.
In addition, Mr Macron has chosen to spend a lot of time during the first-round campaign dealing with international issues – in particular being one of the few Western leaders to speak directly to Vladimir Putin, a matter of always maintaining a personal bond, despite the war.
Meanwhile, M.me Le Pen deplored that certain sanctions against Russia had effects that harmed certain French industries, which was widely criticized.
Advantage: Macron