At 24 hours from the first round of the French presidential election, which will be held on Sunday, the polls announce a replay of the 2017 match between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen. But all the indicators point to a much tighter fight. On the eve of the first round, no one seems able to rule out a victory for the populist right-wing candidate, even if it seems unlikely for most, impossible for some.
A few hours before the electoral truce came into effect Friday at midnight, the tone suddenly rose between the two protagonists. Marine Le Pen accused the president of “showing violence in the democratic debate”. According to her, “an electoral competition is an exchange, it is a confrontation of ideas, of projects”. “The terms that are used by the president are not worthy of his office, are not even worthy of his quality as a candidate. »
In an interview given to ParisianEmmanuel Macron had earlier accused Mme Le Pen of having “a racist program, which aims to divide society”, and of “lying to people” by proposing to increase small pensions. The day before, he had accused of “anti-Semitism” and “xenophobia” the National Rally, which he ironically persists in naming by its former name, the National Front.
For a week, concern seems to have won the entourage of the president, yet entered the campaign late. Simple strategy to mobilize the troops? Still, the gaps have continued to narrow between the main candidates. For a week, Emmanuel Macron (26%) has lost two points, while his rival Marine Le Pen (22%) has gained as much. The momentum has been on Marine Le Pen’s side for at least two weeks, say the pollsters. In the second round, projections suggest that the president would only win by a narrow margin, 53% against 47%.
The outbreak at the very end of the campaign of the “McKinsey affair” scandal makes Sunday’s results even more difficult to predict, analysts say. McKinsey is the name of this American consulting firm whose contracts with the State exploded under Emmanuel Macron, but which has not paid a cent in taxes in France for 10 years, and whose several leaders had worked for free on the campaign of the future president in 2017.
The useful vote
While, according to the polls, nearly 30% of voters still say they can change their minds on this last day of the campaign, all the candidates have urged their activists not to let go. This is particularly true of the supporters of the candidate of the radical left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who, by an effect of “useful vote”, became the third man in this race, with an estimated result of 17.5%.
According to the latest BVA poll, no other candidate would cross the 10% mark. If the candidate of the nationalist right Éric Zemmour (Reconquest) remains at 9.5%, that of the traditional right, Valérie Pécresse (LR), collapses to 8.5%. Behind, the ecologist Yannick Jadot is at 4.5% and the socialist Anne Hidalgo at 2.5%, tied with the communist Fabien Roussel and the regionalist candidate Jean Lasalle.
Even if all the candidates say they are obviously convinced of winning, some seem to have partly won. This week, Éric Zemmour, who is floundering around 10% after having come close to 16%, admitted that he would be a candidate in the June legislative elections. The former journalist had mentioned ” meetings common” between the two towers with Marine Le Pen, but the latter would not hear it like this: “My objective is not to be in the second round, even less to contribute to I do not know what recomposition of the rights”, has she told the Figaro.
Valérie Pécresse, whose party, Les Républicains, could literally implode after a disappointing campaign, has already announced that she will not give any voting instructions in the second round, contrary to the call launched in 2017 to vote Macron to block the opposition. ‘far right. She was immediately congratulated by Marine Le Pen.
LR’s fate could be different depending on whether the party comes in front or behind Éric Zemmour on Sunday. According to the weekly Pointa number of LR deputies are already in discussion with the representative of Emmanuel Macron to save their seat.
Among the Socialists, whose results promise to be cataclysmic, the settling of accounts has already begun. The organization by candidate Anne Hidalgo of a dinner intended, it is said, to prepare for the post-presidential election has set fire to the powder. While several caciques were present, including former president François Hollande and former minister Martine Aubry, the secretary general of the PS, Olivier Faure, was not invited. On Twitter, exasperated activists said they threw their leaflets in the trash.
The shadow of abstention
Caught between the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, this election to which 48.7 million voters are invited is unlike any other.
While, for a year, all surveys had revealed that a clear majority of French people did not want a new Macron-Le Pen confrontation, abstention could reach a record. According to surveys, it would reach 27%, a figure significantly higher than in 2017 (22%). The presidential election is traditionally in France the ballot which records the highest participation rates. This participation also tends to increase in the second round.
This high rate of abstention introduces a variable whose consequences pollsters have great difficulty in measuring. “Mass abstention can have totally devastating effects on results. It could be the total berezina”, declared to the Figaro the managing director of the IFOP, Frédéric Dabi.
Many analysts and editorialists remain bitter about this campaign, which has in turn been described as “sluggish”, “disappointing” or a “Tefal campaign” to which nothing adheres. In the liberal daily Opinion, Nathalie Ségaunes pointed out that despite the similarities with 2017, this election was taking place this year under a new divide. “In 2017, having overcome the right-left opposition, Emmanuel Macron had to recompose the political system. But it was overtaken by another divide, that between the people and the elites. »
Never, under the Vand Republic, a president who was not in cohabitation did not manage to be re-elected. Will this election invalidate the rule? From Sunday evening, the campaign for the second round will be launched. It will end on April 24.