(Paris) Emmanuel Macron would come first in the first round of the presidential election ahead of LR candidate Valérie Pécresse and RN candidate Marine Le Pen, according to a BVA poll for RTL and Orange published on Friday.
The outgoing head of state, not yet officially a candidate for re-election, is credited with 24% of the voting intentions in the first round, ahead of Valérie Pécresse (17%), Marine Le Pen (16%) and Eric Zemmour (13% ).
Emmanuel Macron shows a slight drop of 2 percentage points in voting intentions compared to a survey by the same institute published in mid-November and of 3 points since mid-October.
Mme Pécresse, nominated candidate Saturday by the LR congress, achieved a very strong increase of 8 points compared to mid-November, taking full advantage of the “primary effect”.
Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour are down slightly (-2 points).
On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon would approach the 10% mark with 9% of the voting intentions (+1.5 pt), and would be ahead of Yannick Jadot (7%) and Anne Hidalgo (5%).
The survey only takes into account the voting intentions of people certain of going to vote in the first round and having expressed a voting intention, i.e. 54% of those polled. The possible configurations in the second round have not been tested.
This BVA survey for RTL and Orange therefore places Valérie Pécresse and Marine Le Pen neck and neck, within the margin of error, like an Ipsos poll for The Parisian and franceinfo published Thursday which gave the two candidates at 16%. On Tuesday, a poll by the Elabe institute for BFMTV attributed 20% of the voting intentions to Mme Pécresse.
Voting intentions do not constitute a forecast of the outcome of the ballot. They give an indication of the balance of power and dynamics on the day of the survey.
Survey carried out on the Internet from December 6 to 8, 2021, among 1,500 people registered on the electoral rolls, drawn from a representative sample of 1,655 people from residents of metropolitan France aged 18 and over, according to the quota method.
Margin of error between 1.4 and 3.3 percentage points.