French legislatures | One election, two rounds and many unknowns…

The legislative elections in France, including the 1^er tour is scheduled for Sunday, could lead to an unprecedented political landscape… and chaotic

Why are these elections unprecedented?

Because they are the first to result from a dissolution of the National Assembly after a defeat of the presidential party in intermediate elections (the European elections of June 9). The “list” linked to Emmanuel Macron only collected 15% of the votes compared to 31% for the National Rally of Marine Le Pen and her runner-up, Jordan Bardella.

Is Macron risking his position with this new election?

No. Macron is head of state. This is about renewing Parliament and appointing a new prime minister. On the other hand, he takes the risk of having to lead France in “cohabitation” with a government that is not on his side.

What does Macron hope for by calling new legislative elections?

The ruling majority (the Ensemble coalition, which includes the Renaissance, Horizons and MoDem parties) has been governing with difficulty since 2022, with only a relative majority (245 seats out of 577). With this unexpected “coup”, Macron hopes to catch his opponents off guard and recompose a National Assembly that would be more favorable to him. In a way, he is seeking a new vote of confidence from the French, through a new government, and this, for the three years remaining in his second (and final) term.

What are the forces present?

We are speaking roughly of four political blocs. 1) The Ensemble bloc, led by outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal. 2) The left-wing bloc, called the New Popular Front (NFP), brings together the Socialist Party, France Insoumise, the Greens, and the Communists. A “facade alliance”, specifies political scientist Jean Petaux, because these groups hardly appreciate each other in normal times. 3) On the far right, we find the National Rally (RN) led by Jordan Bardella (and to a lesser extent the Reconquest party, of Éric Zemmour). 4) The right-wing party Les Républicains (LR). But it was split in two following an internal crisis, since its president Éric Ciotti decided to join the RN. Around sixty candidates followed it. The other 400 are fiercely opposed to this alliance and claim the party banner. Enough to fuel voter confusion.

How do elections work?

MPs are elected by two-round single-member ballot, in 577 constituencies, including around ten reserved for French people living abroad (including Canada and the United States). A candidate is elected in the first round if he or she wins more than 50% of the votes. To be able to move on to the second round, you must obtain 12.5% ​​or more of votes equivalent to the number of voters registered (including non-voters). If three candidates advance to the second round, we speak of a “triangular”, a scenario that generally tends to favor the central bloc (in this case, the Macronist parties), explains Olivier Ihl, professor of political science at the University of Grenoble. “In the first round, we choose, in the second round we eliminate, it’s an almost mechanical effect.” The second round is scheduled for Sunday, July 7.

What do the polls say?

It is almost certain that the Ensemble bloc will not regain a majority, even relative. The various opinion surveys published this week put him in third place, behind the left bloc and the RN. According to an IFOP-Fiducial survey for Le Figaro, LCI and Sud Radio as of Friday, the National Rally could thus win between 225 and 265 seats (36.5% of the votes). The NFP is credited with 170 to 200 deputies (29% of the votes), while the Ensemble group would only obtain 70 to 100 seats (20.5% of the votes) against 250 at the time of the dissolution. The seat projections must, however, be interpreted with caution, “taking into account the uncertainties linked to the second round configurations”, underlines the IFOP.

What happens next?

That is the whole question! In the possible absence of a clear majority in the National Assembly, France risks falling into a period of political uncertainty. Responsible for appointing his Prime Minister, the President of the Republic will then have a certain dilemma before him: designate the leader of the winning party as is customary, or try to form a coalition bringing together part of the other two blocs?

The first scenario is unlikely if the RN wins the most seats. Marine Le Pen’s party has no allies, which is its greatest weakness. If he is appointed Prime Minister, Jordan Bardella will likely be rejected by a motion of censure in the Assembly. He knows this and also claims not to want to run for the post without an absolute majority.

The second scenario, involving alliances, would go in the direction of a “federation of projects” advocated by Mr. Macron. This more moderate “republican arc” could take shape around the hundred or so Macronist elected officials, to which would be added the deputies of the PS (left) and those of LR (right), but would automatically exclude France Insoumise (radical left). ) and the RN (radical right). Note that France is not used to coalition governments, even if this system is well established in several European countries. And besides, nothing says that this scenario will be mathematically feasible. In the event of failure, a period of “re-parliamentarization” would begin (like that experienced in Belgium, which remained without a government for long periods) with a possible new dissolution permitted in a year. Or the creation of a “technical” and “apolitical” government, responsible for managing current affairs until the next legislative elections. A potentially favorable scenario for the President of the Republic who, according to Jean Petaux, would then pose as “the arbiter of elegance capable of safeguarding the interests of the country”.

What if the National Rally obtained an absolute majority?

Unlikely scenario, but not impossible at all. In this scenario, we would witness a complicated “cohabitation” between President Macron and an RN government led by Jordan Bardella, since these two entities have very opposing views on just about everything, from the European Union to Ukraine, including immigration, birthright citizenship, pensions, and so on.

In principle, the Prime Minister directs the nation’s major policies, his government submits the laws. The President does not have the right to veto. On the other hand, he can refer the texts to the Constitutional Council, a sort of French Supreme Court, which must judge the “constitutionality” of these laws. The most radical policies of the National Rally (national preference, jus soli) would probably be rejected, unless they review the foundations of the French Constitution. It is unlikely, moreover, that the RN will rush straight in with its most controversial texts. “I think their first challenge is to reassure,” says Olivier Ihl. “They have more interest in things going well, especially if they are aiming for elections. [présidentielles] of 2027. They have nothing to gain by scaring the French…”

For how long are deputies elected?

Technically, for five years, so here until 2029. But it is very likely that the next President of the Republic will want to dissolve this Assembly following the next presidential election in 2027, in order to have a majority to her hand. Story to follow.

With Agence France-Presse

Read Laura-Julie Perreault’s column: “Tempted by extremes”