Free washer | What if the Canadian drafted fourth?

The defeats of the Canadiens, at this point, are almost salutary.

Mathias Brunet
Press

The CH is hanging on as well, after another setback against the Lightning, Tuesday, at the 31^e and second to last place in the general classification. Now with a 12% chance of getting the first pick in the draft.

But under the rules of the lottery, Montreal also has, above all, a 42% chance of choosing fourth since 14 teams are behind it and can win one of the first two lots.

Having fun with the lottery simulator this morning helps confirm that. In ten attempts, the CH did not win the first choice once. Five times he falls to fourth, three times to third and twice does he maintain his position at second.

However, fishing in fourth place is not a misfortune either. We now have several examples in front of us in light of the recent draft.

The last in contention, the Detroit Red Wings, of course. They “lost” the lottery in 2020 and dropped from first to fourth in the draft. Lucas Raymond constituted their consolation prize.

Raymond, 19, maintains his astonishing pace with 22 points in 26 games, leading the NHL rookie scorers, on a par with Trevor Zegras, 20, who prepared Tuesday one, if not the best goal of the year.

2020 top pick Alexis Lafrenière still has a few years to explode, so it’s too early to make a final judgment despite having six points in 24 games, but Detroit doesn’t regret his choice.

The Avalanche loses and wins!

Joe Sakic’s Avalanche doesn’t hate fourth place either. Drafted fourth in 2019, behind Jack Hughes, Kaapo Kakko and Kirby Dach, defenseman Bowen Byram has already become a pillar in defense at 20. Byram, 20, had 8 points in 10 games before getting injured, and was already playing between 22 and 26 minutes per game.

Byram is courtesy of the Senators. They had offered their first choice to get Matt Duchene, not suspecting that they would dive in the standings that year.

Two years earlier, the “unlucky” Avalanche were driven back three places, from first to fourth, in favor of the Devils and Flyers, the winners of the first two lots of the lottery.

New Jersey would pick Nico Hischier in first place and Philadelphia Nolan Patrick in second. Another consolation prize for Denver: a certain Cale Makar, 116 points in his first 120 games in the NHL and a serious candidate again for the Norris Trophy awarded to the defenseman par excellence …

Nolan Patrick is already no longer in Philadelphia. He moved to the Vegas Golden Knights in a three-way trade that saw the Flyers acquire 30-year-old defenseman Ryan Ellis.

A captain in Ottawa

The Sabers don’t regret picking first-place defenseman Rasmus Dahlin in 2018, but the Senators have inherited eventual fourth-place captain Brady Tkachuk nonetheless. Tkachuk has just found his momentum. He has amassed 11 points in his last 9 games to increase his tally to 18 points in 21 games this season.

The 2015 and 2016 draft saw the emergence of exceptional players, logically drafted first, Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews, but Mitch Marner was fourth pick in 2015 and Jesse Puljujarvi fourth the following year. Slowly, but surely, the Finn is solidifying his status as a leading striker. He has 19 points in 24 games this year.

We saw the emergence in fourth place of possible number one defenders, Seth Jones, drafted behind Jonathan Drouin, in 2013, and Alex Pietrangelo in 2008.

Mistakes too

There were nevertheless resounding failures, but more rare. The Islanders drafted Griffin Reinhart at that rank in 2012, behind Nail Yakupov, Ryan Murray and Alex Galchenyuk. They were at least able to trade it in time for first and second round picks and thus get Mathew Barzal and Anthony Beauvillier back.

Sam Bennett, fourth in the 2014 vintage, did not bring satisfaction to the Flames. He appears to be on his way to launching his career in Florida. Calgary got a second-round pick and a prospect, too little for a player drafted so early.

At the rate of defeats, the Canadian made sure to get a good choice, but also avoided finding himself in a position to choose between the 11^e and the 15^e rank, which would force him to cede that choice to the Arizona Coyotes in the exchange for Christian Dvorak.

Marc Bergevin, we recall, gave up the best of his two first-round picks for Dvorak (the other having been obtained from the Hurricanes for Kotkaniemi), but Montreal will give the worse of the two if the first is among the best ten. .

Ben Chiarot’s value rises

Ben Chiarot finds himself at the top of TSN’s list of players likely to change teams by the trade deadline, and he would be worth at least one first-round pick. Goalkeeper Anton Khudobin, Jake DeBrusk, Mark Giordano and Tomas Hertl follow in order. CH continues to maximize its value. Chiarot is employed between 25 and 29 minutes per game, in the first wave of numerical superiority, he does not hate the robust game, in short, a great bait for Jeff Gorton and his next GM. In an ideal world, Chiarot would move to a club on the edge of a playoff place, or destined for a quick elimination, so as to draft among the top 20, but we don’t live in an ideal world …