Free washer | Juraj Slafkovsky, still first in class?

The fan always likes to hear a more objective voice, and therefore external, praise the players of his favorite team.

Corey Pronman, the NHL prospects specialist for The Athletic site, undoubtedly pleased those of the Canadian by proposing to redo the 2022 draft: Juraj Slafkovsky would once again constitute the first choice in his eyes, ahead of Logan Cooley and the defender David Jiricek.

The exercise is interesting in the sense that it allows us to follow the evolution of the young players of the vintages in question, but we must obviously avoid drawing conclusions from it.

We are just starting to see things more clearly with the 2018 draft, five years ago. Imagine after just one season…

Redoing a draft after only one year remains a perilous exercise for two reasons: the development of young people has a variable curve for everyone and they are still playing in different leagues at this stage of their learning.

Slafkovsky and Cooley have already reached the NHL, Simon Nemec and Shane Wright are continuing their careers in the American League, Cutter Gauthier has chosen to stay at Boston College in the NCAA, and Jonathan Lekkerimäki, Noah Östlund and Danila Yurov are still in Europe .

Let’s take the 2019 vintage as an example. After a year, Jack Hughes, Kaapo Kakko and Kirby Dach were almost nose to nose in points per game in their first NHL season. Defenseman Moritz Seider was still playing in Sweden, Matt Boldy had scored just 9 goals in 34 games at Boston College (he scored 31 for the Wild last year) and Alex Turcotte was still considered a more promising player than Cole Caufield .

Question of percentages

At the risk of disappointing you, the chances of seeing Slafkovsky become the best player of his vintage in the next decade are slim. And it is not a question of denigrating his talent, but of recalling an important reality: there will perhaps be five, ten in the race for the throne. You will have a 15% or 20% chance of winning when betting on him, but an 85% or 80% chance of winning against him.

Will it still be a bad choice if it doesn’t come out on top in ten years? Obviously not. The average person likes to revisit the draft a few years later, identify the most productive players and blame their favorite club for not choosing the best.

However, the draft remains a very imprecise science, we remind you. The recruiter and his bosses hope to have chosen a player destined to become important for the team, knowing that his chances of not having chosen the best remain high (according to the rule of 15% vs 85% listed earlier for a draft without an exceptional player of the caliber of Connor McDavid).

If Slafkovsky becomes a scorer of 30 goals per season, formidable in the forecheck at his height of 6 feet 4 inches (almost) 240 pounds, and stands out in the playoffs where space becomes more restricted, the Canadian will have succeeded in his bet.

Despite a very disappointing playoffs in the Ontario Junior League and a lackluster performance in the American Hockey League playoffs, to the point of being scratched from the lineup at one point, Shane Wright remains in fourth rank in Pronman’s reconstituted draft.

Isn’t it ironic to note, however, that this player compared to Patrice Bergeron at the dawn of this draft is still in the minors while the Bruins have replaced their legend at the center of an offensive trio with a player drafted second tower, 54^e rank of this same vintage, Matthew Poitras?

Center Poitras and Quebec defender Tristan Luneau are still in the fifth category of Pronman’s ranking, between 34 and 64^e ranks – “Should play NHL games” – when they have…already played NHL games!

For the curious, Filip Mesar, drafted at 26^e rank by the Canadian, fell to 63^e rank, defender Lane Hutson climbed from 64^e at 25^e rank and Owen Beck of 33^e at 29^e rank.

A change in the draft formula?

The National Hockey League is considering changing its draft formula and imitating the NFL and NBA by allowing teams to conduct operations from their respective headquarters. Drafted players would be greeted on the stage only by commissioner Gary Bettman.

This new way of proceeding would allow clubs to benefit from more time to prepare for the challenges that await them in the days following the draft: the deadline to submit their qualifying offers and the opening of the free agent market. The teams are expected to decide by the end of the day Tuesday.