(Ottawa) A major shift in Britain’s political landscape following Thursday’s election is unlikely to have much impact on Canada’s relationship with its transatlantic ally, experts say, even as it revives hopes of a possible free trade deal.
Achim Hurrelmann, a political science professor at Carleton University, said the two countries have strong ties.
“Although the (Canadian) Liberal Party and the UK Conservative Party belong to different party families, they have generally worked well together on international and trade issues,” he said.
But negotiations for a free trade agreement, which began after Brexit, failed in January.
Among the major issues, the UK wanted to send more English cheese across the Atlantic, but an exemption on Canadian milk quotas expired at the end of 2023.
Martin Buckle, director of the British Chamber of Commerce in Canada, said it was “very surprising” that the British government had pulled out of the negotiations because the dairy issue was well known.
“We hope that the new government will revisit the issue and try to reach something with Canada,” he said.
Concerns have also been raised over UK rules banning the sale of hormone-treated beef from Canada, as well as rules of origin in the automotive sector.
A continuity agreement is still in force, keeping most of the European Union’s old trade rules in place until a separate deal is signed.
The United Kingdom is Canada’s fourth largest trading partner, with trade worth approximately $45 billion per year.
Unlikely concessions
Keir Starmer’s Labour Party has pledged to revive international relations and start striking trade deals. Its election manifesto says it will not reverse Brexit but will work to “remove unnecessary barriers to trade” with the European Union.
There is no specific mention of trade with Canada in the document, which Mr Buckle hopes reflects the fact that there are greater concerns about trade with Europe in the post-Brexit era.
Mr. Hurrelmann, however, stressed that the underlying issues in the trade negotiations with Canada have not changed and are largely non-partisan. He does not expect there to be any urgency to return to the negotiating table.
“I spoke to a British trade negotiator a few months ago and he said these issues are really not important enough to make major concessions that might damage the government’s standing with domestic groups, for example, in Canada, the dairy lobby,” the professor said.
There may be lessons for Canadian politicians in the resounding defeat of a government that has been in power for more than 14 years and is widely seen as “not paying enough attention to the day-to-day concerns of citizens,” he said.
Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have been in power for nine years and the next election is expected to be held no later than October 2025.
In recent weeks, calls have grown for Justin Trudeau to step down, with pundits, former ministers and current caucus members pondering a future without him at the helm of the party.
Achim Hurrelmann said the situation of the British Conservatives could serve as a warning to those hoping that a new Liberal leader will save the trend of poor polls.
The Conservatives in the UK have had three prime ministers in just over two years since Boris Johnson was forced to resign, with Liz Truss’s disastrous stint lasting just 45 days.
According to Mr Hurrelmann, this suggests that “if there are large-scale trends in public opinion, simply changing the face of the prime minister will not make a difference”.