Times are tough for the Coalition Avenir Québec and its leader, but Prime Minister François Legault can always console himself with the thought that he has already found himself in a situation that seemed even more desperate to him.
The day after the defeat in the by-election in Chauveau on June 8, 2015, he had hit rock bottom. He saw himself crushed between the unconditional federalism of Philippe Couillard and the equally intransigent independence of Pierre Karl Péladeau. So much so that he almost gave up everything. Fortunately, the dramatic resignation of Mr. Péladeau, the anti-nationalism of Mr. Couillard and the government’s austerity policies loosened the grip, creating a window from which the CAQ was able to take advantage. But Mr. Legault could well relive his old nightmare.
During his first mandate, he was able to benefit not only from the political truce imposed by the pandemic, but also from the erasure of the Parti Québécois and the Liberal Party of Quebec, both grappling with a crisis of identity and leadership.
Since the last election, the resurrection of the PQ has prompted many sovereignists to leave the CAQ to return home. Now the prospect of the arrival of Denis Coderre could also breathe new life into the PLQ and allow it to repatriate the federalists who had turned their backs on it, once again at the expense of the CAQ.
According to the latest Léger poll, the Coderre effect would result in a 6-point increase in the voting intentions of the PLQ, which would follow the CAQ, while the current gap is 10 points. Concretely, this could mean for Mr. Legault (or his successor) to find himself head of the… third opposition group in the National Assembly.
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It is not surprising that the former mayor of Montreal is clearly more popular than his potential opponents in the leadership race, both among Liberal voters and in the general population. His notoriety is much higher than that of any of them as well as that enjoyed by the former chef, Dominique Anglade.
Winning the race would be the easiest. The same causes often produce the same results, the reasons which pushed Montrealers to prefer Valérie Plante on two occasions could also chill voters throughout Quebec in October 2026. Her presence would no less provoke a serious reshuffling of the cards .
As much as the personality of Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is the polar opposite of that of Pierre Karl Péladeau, it is difficult to imagine two men as different as Denis Coderre and Philippe Couillard. The positions of both on the political future of Quebec are, however, as solidly established as those of their predecessors, while Mr. Legault’s autonomy seems more and more esoteric.
Despite the stagnation of the independence option, for which the latest Léger poll estimates support at 35%, the PQ will continue to promote it, especially since this does not seem to harm its popularity. Whether a referendum will be held will depend on the election results. Until then, whether they like it or not, the other parties will have no choice but to debate it.
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Mr. Coderre made it clear where he is staying in a recent interview with Duty. There is no question of embarking on yet another attempt to reform federalism. “I’m not getting into that,” he said. The former minister in Jean Chrétien’s government adapts very well to the status quo.
He says he has begun reading the report of the PLQ revival committee, which notably proposes the drafting of a Quebec constitution. This 80-page report was published last October; maybe he should take some speed reading lessons.
When the CAQ was founded, Mr. Legault decided to put the national question on the back burner for 10 years, but the June 2015 defeat in Chauveau convinced him that he could not ignore it. His “new project for the nationalists of Quebec” may have created an illusion for the duration of two elections, but all good things come to an end. Of course, there is health, education, the economy, the environment, housing, but the difficulties of daily life have never stopped Quebecers from also thinking about their political future.
The multiplication of rebuffs he receives at each request addressed to Ottawa has cooled Mr. Legault’s autonomist ardor, but he would have to try something to avoid reliving his old nightmare of the vice.
The leader of the PQ said he would support holding a referendum on the transfer of full powers over immigration, as the Prime Minister himself raised the possibility during the last election campaign.
Why not ? Who knows, perhaps this prospect would stimulate goodwill in Ottawa? To avoid distracting the government from its priorities, this consultation could be combined with the next elections, as it had proposed for the reform of the voting system. What if, after a yes vote in this referendum, Ottawa says no again? Well, we’ll see!