The popularity rating of the Coalition avenir Québec is at its lowest since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, recently highlighted in turn Mainstreet Research, Léger and Angus Reid, supporting polls.
However, panic did not take hold of the close guard of Prime Minister François Legault, who had been preparing for a while to suffer the backlash of the health “big blow” struck before and during the holiday season. “We expected worse,” says a political adviser.
The rate of satisfaction with the Quebec government fell by five points—from 65% to 60%—while the index of support for the CAQ fell by four points—from 46% to 42%—in over the last month and a half, for both of them reaching their lowest level since the start of the state of health emergency, on March 13, 2020, we note on reading the poll report made public by Léger on Wednesday .
The support given to the government is “not as enthusiastic”, “not as warm” as it was a few months ago, notes a CAQ strategist, while scanning the tables lining the document. It is a “yellow light”, he mentions, while emphasizing the importance of the “quantitative”, but also the “qualitative” of a percentage.
The political adviser, who has already seen snow, predicts a “thinning”, during which “the quality of the voting intention will increase quite a bit”. For the time being, “sanitary wear and tear” is weighing down the morale of the Quebec population, which is subject to some of the most severe health restrictions on the globe. At a time when “people are fed up with everything”, 60% satisfaction and 37% voting intentions, it’s still “surprising”, he argues.
“Pandemic voter fatigue is reflected in declining support [témoignés à la CAQ] “, also observes the professor in social communication at the University of Quebec at Trois-Rivières (UQTR) Mireille Lalancette. What’s more, the discontent aroused by the government’s “last-minute measures” to break Omicron’s momentum did not translate into a jump in the opposition parties’ voting intentions, except for the Parti Quebec Conservative, which is “fascinating,” she continues.
Nine months before the election, the CAQ collects 42% of voting intentions, compared to 20% for the Liberal Party of Quebec, 14% for Quebec solidaire, 11% for the Parti Quebecois and 11% for the Conservative Party of Quebec, according to Lightweight.
Nearly half of French-speaking voters (48%) remain ranked behind the political formation of François Legault. The others are evenly distributed between QS (14%), the PLQ (12%), the PQ (12%) and the PCQ (12%), which “advantages” the CAQ, underlines Philippe J. Fournier, polls specialist and columnist at News and to Maclean’s. According to the latest projections of its seat projection model, Qc125, the CAQ would succeed today in electing approximately 94 candidates to the National Assembly, 20 more than in 2018. It would face — thanks to the voting system of the first-past-the-post majority type that it no longer wants to get rid of — to a parliamentary opposition made up of 20 Liberal MNAs, 9 Solidarity MNAs and 2 PQ MNAs.
“Runner’s Luck”
One thing is certain, the “position” of the Quebec Premier remains “much more comfortable” than that of his Ontario counterpart, Doug Ford, who will also submit to the verdict of the polls this year, reports Angus Reid.
Quebecers continue to “give the chance to the runner” François Legault, more than half of whose four-year term will have been taken up by the fight against COVID-19 and its suite of variants, rather than reconnecting with one or the other of the “old parties,” says Professor Mireille Lalancette.
“The people of Quebec stick together. Me, it makes me so proud, ”rejoiced the chief caquiste in a press conference Thursday. It is not no question of relaxing the rules health regulations enacted before and during the holiday season since the hospital network is “up against the ceiling”, with a “peak” of 3,400 patients with COVID-19 to be treated and 12,000 absent employees, he indicated, surrounded by the acting national director of public health, Luc Boileau, and the Minister of Health, Christian Dubé. But “we finally see the light at the end of the tunnel”, he specified, in an impression of deja-vu.
Angry-face emojis leapt across his Facebook page — where his media release was livestreamed — supplanting the hearts and thumbs-ups sent to the forehead with clicks. Dozens and dozens of Internet users were urging the Prime Minister to loosen the health rules, echoing in the chat window the owner of the Vite desSINs pastry shop, located in Saguenay, Stéphanie Hariot, according to whom “ enough is enough “.
The “more populist discourse” of the Conservative Party “resonates” more with the Quebec electorate who “is fed up with health measures and all that”, warns Mireille Lalancette. The voting intentions of Éric Duhaime’s team, which actress Anne Casabonne joined this week, doubled – from 5% to 11% – between December 2, 2021 and January 19, 2022.
lesson in humility
Prime Minister François Legault was given a lesson in humility by the Omicron variant, whose unpredictability forced him to adjust the shooting “from day to day”.
At the beginning of December, he openly pleaded for the relaxation of health rules during the holiday season, in order to allow in particular Christmas gatherings of 20 or 25 people, for example. Later in December, he gave three “big shots” – December 16, 22 and 30 – to curb the spread of COVID-19: gatherings limited to 10 people, then to 6 people, then prohibited, dining rooms closed restaurants, back to school postponed to January 10, then to January 17, reinstated curfew, etc.
“You shouldn’t be proud. You have to be humble “and change your approach when the situation demands it, had argued, looking serious, François Legault on December 16. “I’m not here to win a popularity contest. I’m here to try to keep it safe [des] Quebecers, ”he said, while pointing to the increase in hospitalizations of people with COVID-19. “I understand that all Quebecers are tired. Everybody [l’est]. Me first. »
In light of this pandemic “fatigue”, the Prime Minister has everything to gain by “communicating less and better”, even if it means reducing the duration of press conferences, argues Mireille Lalancette, who co-wrote the book ABC of argument. For health professionals or anyone else who wants to convince. “We send our four key messages, that’s what the population remembers, then we respond to journalists afterwards outside [de la salle de presse]. It’s often in the very pointed questions of journalists that all the cards get muddled”, she mentions, before recalling that “in crisis communication, control of the message is still extremely important today”.