Let’s put aside his demand to force unions to disclose their financial statements, which would have thrown already heated negotiations with nurses into disarray.
For the rest, MP Youri Chassin expressed a minority but loud criticism of the Coalition avenir Québec: what remains of the ADQ legacy? Promises to make the state smaller and more efficient? Not much. On that, Mr. Chassin is right.
So he slammed the door on the CAQ to sit as an independent. He will defend, if anyone listens to him, an idea supported by no party in the National Assembly: economic conservatism.
PHOTO EDOUARD PLANTE-FRÉCHETTE, THE PRESS
Saint-Jérôme MP Youri Chassin at a press conference on Thursday
Let’s give him credit for this: François Legault was honest. He acknowledged that Mr. Chassin’s grievances were shared by other members of his caucus.
Many are uncomfortable that last year’s deficit was four times higher than expected. And they are disappointed that the return to a balanced budget has been delayed by two years.
But Mr. Legault put his finger on the problem. “When I ask them what expenditure […] cut, they have no answer.”
Indeed. Easier to criticize than to decide.
The prime minister begins the second half of his term in a precarious situation, sandwiched between those who deplore his deficits and those who fear cuts.
Still, he bears some responsibility. Because he himself fueled expectations by promising to slim down the state. And because he made the task more difficult for himself by accelerating spending and cutting taxes.
When it was created in 2011, the CAQ committed to making public services “more efficient.” It wanted to review the organization of work and “current bodies.” This was at the heart of recent negotiations with education unions, and now those in health.
But when they agreed to merge with the CAQ, the ADQ members were hoping that Mr. Legault, an accountant, would straighten out public finances. Many of them feel that he is still behaving like a PQ member. He is banking on economic interventionism, prioritizing economic sectors and injecting funds. And he is letting the state grow.
In 2012, Mr. Legault promised to reduce the number of civil servants by 7,000. During the 2014 campaign, he spoke of 20,000. In 2018, he lowered the target to 5,000.
But the opposite has happened. Since he came to power, more than 10,000 civil servants have been added. And this figure excludes employees in the health and education networks.
Why? There are many reasons.
New bodies have been created (Ministries of the French Language and Cybersecurity, National Student Ombudsman, Protector of the Integrity of Leisure and Sport, National Institute of Excellence in Education).
New hires were required, particularly for the digital transition and to handle increased demand for services such as francisation and temporary immigration files. But there are also suspicions that middle management positions were added without responding to a pressing need.
These expenses were made possible by the $7 billion surplus left by the Liberals in 2018. The CAQ government began its mandate with a huge list of promises to keep, and with full coffers. Budgetary discipline was therefore not among its priorities.
Six years later, Quebec is showing the highest level of spending as a proportion of its GDP since the 1990s. And its structural deficit stands at $4 billion.
The last budget proposed modest initiatives to reduce it. Video game tax credits were reduced. Two projects were launched to identify savings in programs and in taxation. However, the majority of the expected gains (2.4 out of 2.9 billion) would be obtained after the next elections.
The road ahead is dangerous. The average annual increase in spending for 2023-2027 is projected to be 2.7%. This is less than the increase in system costs in health and education. Inevitably, people will feel the effects.
We are already hearing about health establishments cancelling care, CEGEPs postponing work and commuter train lines threatened with closure.
Mr. Legault is torn between those who want to strengthen public services and those who are worried about the deficit.
Mr. Chassin believes he has the solution: reform the state, by cutting the fat and opening up competition to the private sector. But it is easier to propose in a report than to implement. Talk to the Minister of Health, Christian Dubé, about it.
In the National Assembly, the Liberals are timidly starting to pose as defenders of budgetary discipline again. But they are measuring their criticism so as not to revive memories of the cutbacks of the Couillard era. They have understood where the population stands.
The CAQ also knows this: headlines about health care waits or the dilapidated state of schools will hurt it more than those about the deficit.
Mr. Legault begins the end of his mandate by governing in a tightening vice.