Every Saturday, we decipher climate issues with François Gemenne, professor at HEC, president of the Scientific Council of the Foundation for Nature and Man and member of the IPCC. Saturday: COP 28, where several hundred million dollars in pledges for poor countries were made in Dubai during COP 28.
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COP 28 surprised everyone a little when it started Thursday November 30, with this agreement which was found on the “loss and damage” fund from day one. This fund will allow all developing countries to access financing to repair the damage suffered due to climate change.
According to François Gemenne, professor at HEC and member of the IPCC, something seemed to be brewing when the presidency announced that the official start of the COP was postponed by several hours, but no one expected that such an important agreement would not be adopted as quickly. For him, it is a real masterstroke on the part of the presidency of this COP, after it had been so criticized.
franceinfo: NGOs are talking about a historic agreement for climate justice. What about it?
François Gemenne: It is even the cornerstone of what we call climate justice, which allows industrialized countries to recognize their responsibilities in the impacts of climate change suffered by countries in the South. These countries of the South have an obviously negligible responsibility for climate change. In 2022 at COP 27, there had already been a political agreement on this point, but we had failed to set up the compensation fund.
Was this one of the key issues of this COP, this compensation fund?
“Without this compensation fund, the COP 27 agreement would have remained an agreement in principle, without materiality, and the countries of the South would obviously have had the impression of having been fooled.”
François Gemenneat franceinfo
Now, the fund is on its feet, and we have already started to add to it: the Emirates were the first to take out the checkbook, with 100 million dollars, followed by Germany, with the same amount, then the European Union… Even the United States, although very, very resistant to this idea of financial compensation, put in a few symbolic dollars. This fund is truly the keystone of climate justice, it is the culmination of 30 years of struggle and advocacy for NGOs and countries in the South.
“This agreement should also greatly facilitate the continuation of the discussions, in particular to help ease tensions between Western countries and countries of the South, which risked being exacerbated by the conflict in Gaza.”
François Gemenneat franceinfo
And so it’s really very clever to have concluded this agreement at the opening of the COP. Usually, it is rather in the last days, or even in the last hours of the COPs, that these agreements are made. Diplomatically, it’s a masterstroke, really.
Indeed, are we not forgetting a little that this COP is also a major diplomatic issue for the United Arab Emirates?
Obviously, for them, this is a major issue. And this is undoubtedly also how we should read the very proactive opening speech of the president of the COP, also CEO of a large oil group, al-Jaber, which also surprised many observers.
Why this ?
Because he insisted on the need to include responsibility for fossil fuels in the final declaration of the conference. And here again, he took everyone by surprise because we expected him to try to drown out the issue of fossil fuels, by insisting on other subjects or on investments in renewable energies.
“We didn’t really expect the CEO of an oil company to speak out on the responsibility of fossil fuels for climate change.”
François Gemenneat franceinfo
Are you telling me that Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, is becoming an NGO hero?
This is in case Patrick Pouyanné [PDG du groupe TotalEnergies, ndlr] would listen to us this morning: everything is possible, let him know it! More seriously: let’s of course avoid selling out and declaring victory too quickly. But it is certain that this is a COP which is starting in the best possible way, and that the UAE presidency seems keen to silence the criticism that has been leveled at it in recent weeks.
Do you think they were affected by the criticism?
I’m not sure, honestly. In France, they are often given an importance that does not correspond to their real weight. The COPs are organized according to a principle of geographical rotation, and therefore it makes perfect sense that it is the turn of a Middle Eastern country at regular intervals. And Ahmed al-Jaber has represented his country at the COPs for several years, so it also makes sense that he was designated president.
But what about the symbol?
Exactly: let’s try to make it an asset. The COP is also an opportunity to shake things up in the host country. Even if it doesn’t please indignation professionals, it is precisely the countries that are least engaged in the transition that we need to move today.
“If we want to get away from fossil fuels, we must act on demand, and therefore with oil-consuming countries, but also on supply, and therefore with producing countries.”
François Gemenneat franceinfo
Let’s also see how far we’ve come: two years ago, Saudi Arabia was still opposed to any mention of fossil fuels in the COPs. And here, we are going to discuss the exit from fossil fuels!
Discussing it is one thing. But do you think we will succeed in putting an end to fossil fuels?
We’ll see. What is certain is that there will be great reluctance, greenwashing and lobbying… But we are not immune to a pleasant surprise.