France’s Potential to Halt the EU-Mercosur Agreement: What You Need to Know

France is firmly opposed to the EU-Mercosur trade agreement, which aims to reduce tariffs between the EU and South American countries. Despite pressure from the European Commission, France’s agricultural sector is mobilizing against the treaty. French politicians have called for its rejection, warning of significant political repercussions. As the European Commission considers procedural options for ratification, France is seeking to build a coalition to block the agreement, but its position is becoming increasingly isolated.

France’s Stance on the EU-Mercosur Agreement

In France, there is a strong and unanimous resistance to the EU-Mercosur agreement. This free trade treaty, which has been under negotiation since 1999 between Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Bolivia on one side, and the European Union on the other, aims to enhance trade by eliminating customs duties. Although a political agreement was reached in 2019, the final adoption has faced delays due to opposition from multiple countries, with France being one of the most vocal critics.

The Push for Conclusion and France’s Response

Despite the opposition, the European Commission, backed by Germany and Spain, is eager to finalize the agreement by the year’s end. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez recently highlighted the significance of the upcoming G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro and the Mercosur summit in December as crucial moments for potential announcements regarding the treaty.

Amidst these developments, France is amplifying its objections, driven by an agricultural sector that is poised to mobilize against the agreement. Economy Minister Antoine Armand stated on Sud Radio that the French government is employing “all means” to halt the treaty’s adoption. Political and diplomatic efforts are being mobilized, evidenced by a protest in Brussels led by French farmers, echoing earlier demonstrations from the year. Additionally, over 600 French parliamentarians from various political affiliations have urged European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to reject the agreement, warning that ignoring France’s opposition could lead to a “democratic explosion.”

Prime Minister Michel Barnier reiterated this sentiment during his visit to Brussels, emphasizing the importance of considering France’s position. As Emmanuel Macron embarks on a diplomatic tour in Latin America, he aims to leverage his influence in the negotiations, particularly in Brazil and Argentina, which are pivotal players in the regional bloc.

In tandem with these discussions, France is working to persuade other European nations to collectively oppose the ratification of the agreement. The European Commission is yet to decide on the procedural approach for passing the treaty. Typically, a treaty of this nature requires unanimous approval from the EU Council, as well as endorsement from the European Parliament and individual member state parliaments, granting France a veto right.

However, the Commission could opt to divide the agreement into two parts, separating the trade and political components. If this occurs, the trade aspect could be approved with a qualified majority vote, needing support from only 15 out of 27 member states, representing 65% of the EU population.

To counter this potential scenario, Paris is actively seeking allies to form a “blocking minority.” This would necessitate the opposition of three additional states whose populations collectively exceed 35% of the EU’s total. Despite Barnier’s assurances of shared concerns, France’s position appears increasingly isolated.

Once the Council votes on the agreement, the ratification process could proceed swiftly. Following translation into all EU languages, only a parliamentary majority would be needed for adoption. However, according to researcher Elvire Fabry from the Jacques Delors Institute, France might struggle to oppose the treaty if a majority vote is achieved. She notes that France’s political influence has diminished since the summer, following Emmanuel Macron’s dissolution of the National Assembly.

Should the agreement pass in this manner, France may face significant challenges in legally opposing it, as acknowledged by Sophie Primas, Minister Delegate for Foreign Trade, during her Senate hearing on November 14.

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