“France is one of those states which want to maintain the territorial integrity of Ukraine”, declared Wednesday, December 15 on franceinfo Florent Parmentier, secretary general of the Center for political research of Sciences Po (Cevipof) and teacher at Sciences Po, while Emmanuel Marcon participates in the summit of the Eastern Partnership between the European Union and five former Soviet republics, including Ukraine.
franceinfo: The shadow of Russia, suspected of preparing a new invasion of Ukraine, will hang over this summit. What are these suspicions based on?
Florent Parmentier : I think we have to start with the facts first. There is an increased presence of Russian troops throughout Ukraine’s borders and which potentially could attack Ukrainian territory both from the North, from the East and from the South, via Crimea. There is a very strong presumption on the part of Ukraine, but also on the side of the United States, that these Russian maneuvers may not be a step of intimidation and be a kind of prelude to an attack. This is the question that many observers ask themselves: are we, on the part of Russia, in the will to really launch a negotiation and to mark a balance of power? This would mean that destabilizing the Ukrainian president and worrying Americans and Europeans would be enough to create a stronger negotiating playing field. Where are these the beginnings of a high intensity conflict? It should be remembered that Ukraine and Russia continue to clash in western Ukraine. There are still, every month, a certain number of deaths in the troops on the Ukrainian side. This will be the subject of discussions between Emmanuel Macron and his European counterparts: what should be the position of the Europeans?
The position of the European Union is therefore not clear on these suspicions of invasion?
No, I think we can say that there are two trends that emerge. A trend that anticipates the worst, in Poland, in the Baltic States or in a number of countries, mainly in Central Europe. That part would be more favorable to much more explicit support for the Ukrainians. And then, Germany, via its new Chancellor Olaf Scholz, is positioning itself rather as being hostile to the delivery of arms to Ukraine, saying that if we deliver arms now, we send as a message a new opportunity to an escalation of hostilities on both sides. There are two opposing lines. It remains to be seen how the Europeans will wish to position themselves collectively in an attempt to dissuade Russia from attacking Ukraine. I think there is a consensus in Europe, as well as to support the territorial sovereignty of Ukraine.
What is France’s position?
France is one of those states which want to maintain Ukraine’s territorial integrity and which mentioned it early on. At the same time, Emmanuel Macron’s concern is to appear on both legs. A first leg is that of firmness. The idea is that if you don’t send the message that you are prepared to support the Ukrainians in one way or another, you are depriving yourself of bargaining leverage. But any form of balance of power or firmness must be accompanied by another element, which is the ability to negotiate and consider different positions. We can therefore estimate that Emmanuel Macron will be both anxious to listen to the fears that exist in Poland, in the Baltic States and sometimes elsewhere, and to be inspired by the behavior of Germany, which is trying at all costs to avoid escalation of the conflict. We can see that Emmanuel Macron will be in a position to try to bring the Europeans together. Emmanuel Macron had very clearly positioned himself in August 2019, with his desire for discussions with Russia, to find new ways of interacting with the Russian power.