(Paris) A few days before the Christmas holidays, the government must unveil a highly contested pension reform, which its opponents are preparing to block by all means, from the streets to Parliament.
The gift will not make many happy. After a short consultation, Elisabeth Borne will finally present – probably Thursday afternoon – the main lines of the pension reform, the cornerstone of Emmanuel Macron’s second five-year term.
The executive has already begun to prepare minds, multiplying press interviews, work meetings at Matignon and summit dinners at the Élysée. But the announcements of the Prime Minister are run in advance, marked by the presidential promise to push back the legal age from 62 to 64, even 65 years. This last terminal holds the rope.
“It’s the only lever we have,” says the head of state, who has ruled out from the start increasing contributions or reducing pensions. This measure, whether or not accompanied by an increase in the contribution period, risks relegating to the background any counterparties on hardship or small pensions.
Especially since the government wants to move quickly: a bill in January, a vote in the spring, entry into force in the summer, with the “1961 generation” to wipe the plaster. As an emergency, justified by the lasting return of massive deficits, which would exceed 12 billion in 2027.
Impossible for Mr. Macron to leave such a legacy to his successor, especially after the failure of his project for a “universal pension system”, stopped short by COVID-19. Time is therefore running out for him, before the European elections of 2024 which will mark the half-time of his mandate.
Tempted to pass in force at the beginning of the fall via the Social Security budget, he resolved to wait three more months. Barely enough to consult the social partners, play the opening and note the substantive disagreements.
“They are obstinate”
Because no union accepts this reform, not even the French Democratic Confederation of Labor (CFDT), which hardened its position on the subject during its last congress in June. Since then, its leader Laurent Berger has hammered home his opposition to any “age measurement” and warned against a “hard reform” which would provoke an “equally determined social reaction”.
His counterpart from the General Confederation of Labor (CGT), Philippe Martinez, also urges the executive to “take it seriously”, but without any illusions: “They are obstinate”. Its troops also know how to be tough, as recent refinery blockades have reminded us.
Against a backdrop of record inflation and wage demands, the warning shots also affected the electricity and gas industries, as well as the Autonomous Paris Transport Authority (RATP), whose special regimes are in the government’s sights.
Simple warnings, which awaken the specter of the long social conflict of the winter of 2019-2020, which had rallied railway workers, truckers and dockers, among others. But union strategists are waiting for the right moment to do battle.
The eight national centers have planned to meet in the wake of the announcements of Mme Terminal, to stall their response around the date of presentation of the bill in the Council of Ministers – perhaps January 11.
The rest will be played as much in the street as in the Assembly, where the text is promised a way of the cross. The leader of the deputies of La France insoumise, Mathilde Panot, swears to “fight it step by step” with a rain of amendments. At the other end of the hemicycle, Marine Le Pen made known her “absolutely total opposition to the substance” of the reform.
The leaders of the various parliamentary groups will again be received at Matignon between Monday and Thursday morning. But unless there is an improbable alliance with the right-wing Les Républicains, recourse to 49.3 seems inevitable. An option that the majority supports in advance, like the patroness of the Macronist deputies of the Renaissance, Aurore Bergé, who judges that this scenario “should not be taboo”.