“Russia and Belarus do not have the infrastructure to be able to export the quantities that remain in stock”, explained on Saturday June 11 on franceinfo Michel Portier, director of Agritel, an analysis and consulting firm specializing in agricultural and agro-industrial markets. The blockade of the Ukrainian port of Odessa by Russian forces prevents the export of grain, a blockade at the origin of a world food crisis. The consequence, according to Michel Portier, is that “prices will rise significantly”. He calls for France “shows its solidarity also with importing countries”exchanging wheat for gas, he further suggests.
>> In Odessa, due to the blockade of Russian troops, part of the wheat harvest begins to rot
franceinfo: Is setting up a corridor to export cereals feasible?
Michael Porter: It seems extremely complicated. We would have to agree to remove the mines [dans le port d’Odessa], so to trust Mr. Putin so that he does not take advantage of this to send a landing by sea. And then, we have to be able to secure the cargo ships that are going to load on Odessa or Nikolayev. It would almost be necessary to send warships.
“I find it hard to see today how Mr. Putin would accept that we send military boats, from the UN force or otherwise, to secure a food corridor.”
Michael Porterat franceinfo
Vladimir Putin says he is not opposed to wheat leaving Ukraine through ports he controls via Belarus, which would require lifting sanctions against Alexander Lukashenko. Is he blackmailing?
There is an obvious form of blackmail. This is called the food weapon. Very clearly he says ‘If you are nice to me, I will export my wheat to you. And if you’re not nice, you won’t get any’. But in any event, Russia and Belarus do not have the infrastructure to be able to export the quantities that remain in stock. It can only come out through the Black Sea with big ships, Panamaxes, ships that can load 60,000 tons, the equivalent of 50 trains.
What are the current and future consequences if these cereal export blockages continue?
One of the main consequences is the continued rise in wheat prices, since the big importers will have to obtain supplies elsewhere, at extremely high logistical costs.
“What you have to understand is that there is no shortage of wheat in the world. What we lack is wheat that can circulate. We have 22 million tonnes of cereals blocked today. today in Ukrainian ports.”
Michael Porterat franceinfo
That’s 16 million tons of corn and six million tons of wheat. World flows are approximately 200 million tonnes of wheat. But roughly speaking, even if 20 or 30 million tonnes are missing, it is these 30 million tonnes that will cause prices to rise significantly. Will the big importing countries, especially those without energy resources, have the financial means to be able to pay for this wheat?
Western countries can pay or will be able to get supplies. But is there a risk for countries in Africa or the Middle East?
The West, there is no problem. But I think the West must also play its part in helping importing countries. I am thinking in particular of those countries that are friends and close to us, the Maghreb countries.
“Remember that France exports one ton of wheat out of two, so there is absolutely no problem.”
Michael Porterat franceinfo
I’m thinking of Algeria, I’m thinking of Morocco with it, the height of the problem for Morocco: the country is experiencing the worst drought in its history. They will have to import a lot of wheat. We will have to help our neighboring countries and export wheat to them. Why not export wheat against gas for example for Algeria, or with Morocco against other goods, notably fertilizers. But we will also have to show solidarity with the importing countries.
This global food risk, is it real?
Yes, very real, unfortunately.