The rise of the fifth wave of the Covid-19 epidemic “is stronger than expected”, estimates Sunday, November 21 on franceinfo Professor Gilles Pialoux, infectious disease specialist, head of the tropical infectious diseases department at Tenon hospital in Paris. But according to him, the term “dazzling” used by the spokesman of the government Gabriel Attal, “is a political impression which does not correspond to a mathematical reality” because “For the moment, France maintains the gap between the increase in new cases and the increase in re-entry into the hospital”.
franceinfo: For the past two weeks, the number of contaminations has increased very rapidly, in the order of 40 to 50% per week. Should we actually be worried?
Gilles Pialoux: Yes, there is an increase in the incidence. But what is important to remember, to reassure, is that we are monitoring very closely the increase in hospitalizations and passages in intensive and critical care and deaths of course. They are increasing all the same, but when you say that there is + 40% increase in incidence, at the same time we have 11% increase in critical care. So there is a gap which is very important and which is explained by the vaccination. The term “dazzling”, [employé par le porte-parole du gouvernement Gabriel Attal], I think it’s a political impression. It is his right, but it does not correspond to a mathematical reality. There is an increase, a surge that was expected. She may be stronger than expected. But for now, France maintains the gap between the increase in new cases and the increase in re-entry into the hospital. But let me add that in the current situation of the public hospital, with the beds closed, the staff problem, and it is the circulation of winter viruses, we will not need a huge wave to be to be overwhelmed.
How to explain this recovery when 75% of the population is completely vaccinated in France?
We admit it and have often explained it. The requirements of the Delta variant are much higher than 75% [de la population vaccinée]. This is the first thing. Second, there is a blind spot. There are the 6.4 million people aged 12 to over 80, who are eligible for vaccination and have not yet received a dose. They are added to the 10 million under 12 for whom we do not yet have a vaccine authorization. It is a debate. So that’s still a lot of people in whom the virus is circulating. And in addition, as we have already explained, it also circulates in vaccinated people. So we have overall viral circulation which is important. And then, as we can clearly see with the data from Public Health France, there is a drop in barrier measures. For example, greeting each other without a hug is almost only one in two French people, 54% exactly. So, you have to tighten the bolts, even if everyone is fed up.
Is the partial de-reimbursement of Covid-19 tests a mistake?
I think this is a mistake. This is not an economic error, but it is a health error because we know very well that asymptomatic people are being screened less and less. We lost 24% of asymptomatic patients who are screened. And then, even the unvaccinated, there’s almost a quarter who refuse to be tested, even when they have symptoms. The test does not replace vaccination, but it is more.