France insoumise obtains 10.1% of the votes, according to our Ipsos estimate

The list of La France insoumise, led by Manon Aubry, achieved a better score than in 2019, but much lower than that of Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the 2022 presidential election.

Better than in 2019 and a little more than what the polls predicted. The La France insoumise list, led by Manon Aubry, obtains 10.1% of the votes in the European elections, Sunday June 9, according to an Ipsos estimate for France Télévisions, Radio France, France 24, RFI, Public Senate and LCP-National Assembly. A score significantly higher than the 6.31% in 2019.

It finished in fourth position, behind the National Rally, Renaissance and its allies and the Socialist Party. La France insoumise, which had six deputies within the Left group in the European Parliament, should occupy 9 to 10 seats, notably with the election of the Franco-Palestinian jurist Rima Hassan, according to our Ipsos estimate.

How did the party react?

The results of the European elections mark the “defeat and the scathing rout of macronism”, launched the head of the LFI list, in front of its activists, shortly after 8:30 p.m. Manon Aubry believes that the score “historically weak” by Valérie Hayer “sanctions an unjust and authoritarian policy”. “It is obvious that the country wants to turn the page on the Macron era”she reacted, adding that “this page must not turn with the National Rally”who emerged as the winner of the vote with 31.5% of the votes, according to our Ipsos estimate.

While the President of the Republic announced the dissolution of the National Assembly, the founder of LFI Jean-Luc Mélenchon considered that he had “reason” to do. Rebellious France “do not fear the people”he proclaimed.

Who are the elected candidates and with which group will they sit?

La France insoumise will send 9 to 10 elected officials to the European Parliament, two more than in 2019. Among the eight elected candidates, five will begin a second term: Manon Aubry, Younous Omarjee, Marina Mesure, Leïla Chaibi and Damien Carême. Labor inspector Anthony Smith and business manager Arash Saeidi become MEPs for the first time. The lawyer Rima Hassan, seventh on the list, will also sit in the chamber. These MEPs will sit within the Left group, co-chaired by Manon Aubry, which until now represented the seventh and last force in the European hemicycle, with less than 40 elected officials.

How did the La France insoumise campaign unfold?

The LFI campaign began with a failure: the left’s union list for the European elections never saw the light of day, unlike the Nupes electoral coalition for the 2022 legislative elections. one of the other left-wing parties, first and foremost Les Ecologistes-EELV, La France insoumise appointed Manon Aubry head of the list at the end of January. For four months, the 34-year-old MEP has several times put the presidential camp and the National Rally back to back.

Focused on the defense of purchasing power and the questioning of free trade treaties, the campaign of La France insoumise also focused heavily on the question of the war in the Gaza Strip. The movement has defended a very outspoken pro-Palestinian position since the terrorist attacks carried out by Hamas on October 7 and the murderous response of the Jewish state.

Rima Hassan embodied this desire to mobilize the LFI electorate on this theme, while the political consequences of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have been one of the striking themes of recent weeks. “It’s not just about Gaza” in the campaign, however, Manon Aubry defended herself one week before the election, on RMC, while LFI remained below 10% of voting intentions until the end of the campaign, despite a late tremor.

What are the consequences for LFI and the left?

As in 2019, La France insoumise fails to transform Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s good score in the previous presidential election, a sign that the European elections are not the most mobilizing election for the radical left movement. But by exceeding 10%, the movement can hope to continue to have influence on the left.

The list La France insoumise is ahead of Les Ecologistes-EELV by Marie Toussaint this year (5.5%) but is left behind by the Socialist Party-Place publique of Raphaël Glucksmann (14%), who will try to play a more important role in the recomposition of the left. Faced with the dissolution of the Assembly, the left has three weeks to put itself in battle order.