four signs that show the eighth wave is coming

“We are well at the start of the eighth vague” of Covid-19, warns on Twitter Rémi Salomon, President of the Establishment Medical Commission (CME) of the Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP). The latest epidemiological update from Public Health France, posted online on Friday September 9, confirms a slowdown in the decline of the epidemic. “It is almost certain that there will be a wave in the fall”, warned, in mid-August, Brigitte Autran, immunologist appointed president of the “committee for monitoring and anticipating health risks”, heir to the Scientific Council. Here are the four signs that do not deceive.

1Contaminations are on the rise again

At the end of August-beginning of September, the number of positive cases stagnated above 17,000 cases per day on average over seven days, against more than 130,000 at the peak reached in mid-July. Since then, contaminations have started to rise again: as of September 13, 20,209 cases per day were declared on average over the last seven days.

2The incidence rate is increasing

The incidence ratei.e. the number of positive cases per 100,000 inhabitants, is also slightly increasing. As of September 13, it stood at 184 nationwide, down from 166 in early September. The incidence rate even exceeds the threshold of 200 in around thirty departments. Reunion (307), Ardennes (298), Cantal (292) are the territories where it is the highest.

3The epidemic is on the rise again among children

The resumption of the epidemic is observed in particular among children under 10 years old. For the second consecutive week, at the end of August-beginning of September, the incidence rate increased among 0-9 year olds, rising to 98 (+9%). It is also in this age group that the test positivity rate is the highest (24%, +1.5 points). It is also up slightly among 10-19 year olds (18.3%, +0.6 points).

“The still active circulation of Sars-CoV-2 and the resumption of activities favorable to its transmission in connection with the start of the school year also make it necessary to apply barrier gestures in order to protect fragile people and to respect the measures recommended in the event of symptoms, positive test or contact at risk”underlines Public Health France.

4Vaccination coverage is still too low

“The big unknown is the real immune state of the population, because we are generally quite far from the last injections received”, analyzes epidemiologist Mahmoud Zureik for The Parisian. And for good reason,u September 5, only 33.3% of 60-79 years took the second booster dose of vaccine, 46.8% among those aged 80 and over. “It is essential to step up the vaccination effort in view of the vaccination coverage which remains insufficient”thus alerts Public Health France.

What will be the extent of this eighth wave on hospitals? Hospital admissions continue to decline nationwide. The movement began in August, but the pace has slowed significantly over the past few days. However, “if we refer to the previous [vagues], there was a very large number of cases, but the hospital impact remained lower”analyzes the virologist Yannick Simonin for The Express.

The Omicron BA.5 subvariant is currently ubiquitous. It accounted for 95% of samples sequenced in the last flash survey, dating back to mid-August. The arrival of another variant, even more contagious, even more virulent, and which would become dominant, remains the great uncertainty. Public Health France wants to be reassuring, however, in its latest risk analysis on emerging variants: “Nowadays, no sub-lineage of BA.5 appears to display any particular characteristics.”