four reasons to believe that Paris Saint-Germain will qualify for the semi-finals of the Champions League

With a one-goal handicap to overcome on their opponents’ pitch, the Parisians have their backs against the wall, but have not said their last word.

Paris Saint-Germain is condemned to the feat in Barcelona. Beaten at home (2-3) in the first leg, the capital club is in an unfavorable position on Tuesday April 16 (9 p.m.). According to Opta, a specialist in football statistics, he only has a 23.4% chance of qualifying for the semi-finals. And if we look at the history of French clubs in European competitions, qualification has never been achieved after a defeat at home in the quarter-finals or semi-finals (0/15, Intertoto Cup and City Cup). fairs included). But the fact remains that this PSG has some arguments to put forward.

Paris has already overturned a knockout showdown

And it’s pretty recent. In 2020, the capital club eliminated Borussia Dortmund in the round of 16 after losing the first leg by one goal (1-2). Of course, he played the return match at home, at the Parc des Princes. But the outbreak of Covid-19 led to it being played behind closed doors. The Parisian players were only able to rely on the fervor of their supporters outside the stadium, once the match was over, with images that remained engraved in the club’s history.

That evening, PSG didn’t even need Kylian Mbappé to get by. Neymar and Juan Bernat scored the two goals to qualify for the Final 8 in Lisbon (2-0 victory), organized in August, of which Paris reached the final, lost against Bayern Munich (0-1).

The only time Kylian Mbappé played for Barcelona, ​​he scored a hat-trick

This is probably his greatest feat in the Champions League with PSG. Three years ago, Paris Saint-Germain had already faced Barça in the round of 16. During the first leg, at Camp Nou, Kylian Mbappé martyred the Catalans, who quickly opened the score. Still in goal for the Blaugranas, Marc-André ter Stegen undoubtedly remembers the three times he had to fetch the ball in his net.

The day after the match, won 4-1 by Mauricio Pochettino’s PSG, the images of Gérard Piqué deciding to stop Mbappé by pulling his jersey went around the world.

Paris showed in the first leg that it could be superior to Barça

What if Gianluigi Donnarumma hadn’t missed two outings? What if the amounts had not frustrated Bradley Barcola, then Ousmane Dembélé? “The difference comes down to very small things, to details”, tempered Luis Enrique after the defeat at the Parc des Princes, Wednesday April 10. Despite 58% possession and two periods of clear domination at the start of each period, his team failed to take the advantage.

For this return match, the Parisian coach will have had time to learn several lessons. Unlike Barça, who played in the championship (by largely rotating in Cádiz on Saturday for a 1-0 victory), he had six days to concentrate only on preparing for this meeting. It also records the return of an executive, Achraf Hakimi, suspended in the first leg, when Barça will be deprived of Andreas Christensen and Sergi Roberto.

Barça is still rebuilding

No more appearances at this stage of the C1 for four years, two European adventures ended with early eliminations in the Europa League… Since more or less the end of Luis Enrique’s mandate (2017), FC Barcelona is no longer the great of Europe that he was. He has been on the upswing since the arrival of Xavi on his bench in November 2021, but he is still rebuilding, by the Catalan icon’s own admission. Tuesday evening, Barça will have the opportunity to put years of hardship and downgrading behind them.

The pressure will be greater than on this PSG decided to get rid of its obsession with the Champions League. The Blaugranas need to prove that they are back in the big leagues, when Paris is only in the first year of an era that aims to be less impatient. We must also not forget that Barça, after inflicting a comeback on PSG in 2017, suffered two in a row, against AS Roma in 2018 (4-1, 0-3), then Liverpool in 2019 (3-0, 0-4). Both times, it was away from home that he was eliminated, of course. But, if we still want to look for reasons to believe it, we cannot say that he will really be at home on Tuesday, since it is not at the Camp Nou, under construction, but at the Olympic stadium in Montjuïc that he will face PSG.