The microphones will heat up at the National Assembly this week. After examining the 2023-2027 budget programming bill, the deputies began debates on Monday, October 10 on the first part of the 2023 budget bill (PLF). The session opened with the intervention by the ministers and the various political groups, then will come, no doubt from Tuesday, the discussion around the 3,000 amendments tabled by the deputies.
>> Vote on the budget: follow the debates in the Assembly in our live
This is the first stage of the budget marathon that the government is committed to until December. In the new bubbling Assembly, the relative presidential majority of Emmanuel Macron will face the blows of the opposition with the specter of 49.3 that the government can choose to draw at any time.
1What does the text on the budget contain?
The first part of the finance bill includes several budgetary measures, starting with a “tariff shield” of 45 billion euros which should help the French to cope with the explosion in energy prices. Individuals will also benefit from the increase to inflation of the income tax scale – a cost of 6.2 billion euros for the State – in order to prevent the most modest French people from entering in the field of income tax due to wage increases linked to inflation.
“The French and the French will not pay more taxes because of inflation.”
Bruno Le Maire and Gabriel Attalin the press kit on the PLF
Several ministries have also seen their budgets increased: Defense (an additional 3 billion euros), Education (3.7 billion euros), Health (2.1 billion euros) or Justice (700 million euros). This should make it possible to finance more than 10,700 additional positions for the State and its operators : 1 500 for the Ministry of the Armed Forces, 2 000 for that of National Education (in particular accompanying persons with disabilities, but not teachers), 3 000 for the Ministry of the Interior or even 2 500 for that of Justice. The envelope is also used for salary increases, such as for teachers or judicial magistrates, or for equipping the armies.
Based on optimistic economic assumptions (1% growth in 2023), the PLF is thus playing a balancing act, between on the one hand the desire to “protect” the French against inflation and on the other the objective of not increasing the debt. The course set is to contain the public deficit at 5% of GDP in 2023 and bring it back below the 3% mark before the end of the five-year term.
2What are the sticking points?
“No new spending” cannot be introduced during the parliamentary debate if it is not “financed to the nearest euro”, warned the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, leaving little room for maneuver to the opposition. Too expensive for the right, marked with the seal of austerity for the left, “submitted” in Brussels according to the National Rally, this 2023 budget does not satisfy the oppositions, who have already announced their intention to vote against. The “Bercy dialogues”organized in September by the Minister of Public Accounts, Gabriel Attal, with deputies from all ranks of the hemicycle, did not allow the positions to be reconciled.
The deputies of the Nupes are trying to make their proposals heard, in particular on the taxation of the exceptional profits of the largest companies. The RN is also pushing for the taxation of these “superprofits”. But, when asked about France Inter, Gabriel Attal reiterated his preference for the agreement being finalized at European level. in order to involve energy companies and tankers.
On the other hand, on the question of private jets, the Minister confirmed that the executive would support a majority amendment aimed at aligning the advantageous taxation of kerosene for these planes with that of other fuels. “We can be more ambitious than that”he added, suggesting that France could be the “the first country to force them to fly on biofuel”.
The deputies will finally clash on the question of the progressive abolition from 2023 of the contribution on the added value of companies (CVAE), a production tax. This measure is contested by the Nupes, which hopes for allies on the right on this point, but also by certain deputies of the majority sensitive to the discontent of the local authorities collecting this tax. The Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, tried to calm things down by promising an increase in their overall operating grant, to 320 million euros instead of the 210 million initially announced.
3What is the strategy of Les Républicains?
If things are clear for the left as for the RN, at Les Républicains, two lines clash. On the one hand, the parliamentarians close to the hard right of deputy Eric Ciotti, and on the other, the so-called “constructive” LR elected officials. No surprise, the former, a large majority within the LR group, will vote against the bill, while the latter plan, for some, to abstain, or even to vote in favor of the text. “If the many amendments we are making improve things, then why not vote on the text?” asks the deputy of Hauts-de-Seine Philippe Juvin. Before adding: “It’s a shame to say that we are for or against a text before the vote.”
“We cannot welcome a return to parliamentarism in France and at the same time practice a systematic blocking opposition.”
Philippe Juvin, deputy LRat franceinfo
Abstain in the vote for “avoid a situation of institutional blockage of the country”this is also what this other LR deputy advocates. “I am moving towards benevolent abstention”he confirms behind a cautious anonymity. “I was not elected to help the government, but to help the country and the French”he asserts, confirming that he recently met collaborators of Elisabeth Borne and Gabriel Attal.
If no voting instructions have been given by the president of the group, Olivier Marleix, the constructive LR deputies are hoped for by the majority as an auxiliary force. But this small Macron-compatible group may not weigh heavily enough in the balance to allow the government to obtain an absolute majority. “I told the government that it was much too early. The presidency of the Republicans, which will be decided at the end of the year, is too hysterical about our positions within the group for the moment, entrusts this same anonymous deputy. After this political sequence, we will probably see more clearly.”
4Will the government use 49.3?
“I expect a lot from the debate, but still there must be a debate, there must be no obstruction and no desire to block”, warned Gabriel Attal. In total, 3,300 amendments were tabled by the opposition, including a third (1,200) by Les Républicains alone, against 800 by the four left-wing groups that sit in the hemicycle. A significant number, but well below the 41,000 amendments tabled by the opposition in 2020 during the examination of the pension reform.
In the ranks of the majority, all have begun to resolve to resort to article 49.3 of the Constitution to pass this text without a vote, for lack of an absolute majority for the macronists. “The question to ask is not if, but when”confides to franceinfo Aurore Bergé, president of the Renaissance group at the National Assembly.
“We have no choice but to use it from the moment the oppositions say they will vote against.”
Aurore Bergé, president of the Renaissance groupat franceinfo
The bets are therefore launched on the day of the announcement by the government of the use of 49.3. “It will be before the weekendpredicts a key player in the majority, interviewed by franceinfo. “Even if we let the proceedings unfold, in the end, we will not escape the accusation of brutality.” Many deputies of the majority actually want a passage in force without wasting time. “I’m team ‘as soon as possible’. The less we get cut out by opposition, the better”claims a Renaissance deputy. “With weeks of debate, we take the risk of exhausting everyone and making it unreadable for the public”continues an official of the majority.
“With the fuel crisis, we will perhaps wait a bit. We must watch this crisis like milk on the fire and avoid giving grain to grind to the most radical. We are not within a week for 49.3 “tempers a close adviser to Macron, joined by France Télévisions. And a minister summarized the dilemma of the executive: “If your priority is to pamper the deputies of the majority, as soon as possible is better. If your priority is public opinion, you have to draw as late as possible to show that you make every effort possible.”