Western Sahara “is not to be negotiated”. The words of the King of Morocco, Mohammed VI, Saturday, November 6, about this territory disputed for decades between his country and the Sahrawi separatists supported by Algeria, are unequivocal. Since the summer, tensions between Morocco and Algeria have been exacerbated, reaching a peak on November 1, with the death of three truckers, caught in a bombing, in Western Sahara. Franceinfo takes stock in four questions on this conflict bogged down for decades between Algeria and Morocco.
1What happened ?
If for a year the relations between Algeria and Morocco have gradually deteriorated, tensions have increased after November 1, following the death of three Algerian truckers caught in a bombing in the territory of Western Sahara.
Algiers accuses Rabat of a “cowardly assassination”, clerk “with sophisticated weaponry (…) while they were making the Nouakchott-Ouargla link”, between Mauritania and Algeria, said the Algerian presidency in a statement released Thursday. She also denounced “the extreme gravity of the act of state terrorism in question, which no circumstances can justify” and assured that “the assassination of these three Algerians will stay[it] not go unpunished “.
Officially, Rabat has still not responded directly to these attacks, noted TV5 Monde on Friday. But unofficially, “If Algeria wants war, Morocco does not. Morocco will never be drawn into a spiral of violence and regional destabilization”, reacted to AFP a “informed Moroccan source”. “If Algeria wishes to drag the region into war, with provocations and threats, Morocco will not follow”, insisted the same source, who requested anonymity.
2What are the origins of this crisis?
It began on November 13, 2020. Since 1991, a ceasefire has been concluded between Morocco and the Polisario Front, supported by Algeria which claims the independence of this territory, after sixteen years of conflict. But this truce, generally respected for about thirty years, has been broken. The Moroccan army carried out an operation in the buffer zone of the Guerguerat border post (far south) to restore road traffic to Mauritania, cut off by the Sahrawi separatists. In reaction, the Polisario Front declared a state of war.
A month later, the tension rose a notch, when Morocco obtained from American President Donald Trump the recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara (recognition which was confirmed during the summer by Joe Biden, recalls RFI ). In return, Morocco has normalized its relations with Israel. Reconciliations viewed with a dim view by Algeria, which broke off diplomatic relations with Morocco on August 24, accusing it of supporting the Movement for the Self-Determination of Kabylia (MAK), which Algiers considers to be a terrorist organization.
Finally, on October 31, the Algerian president decided to cut gas in Morocco. However, Algerian gas covers 97% of Moroccan needs, notes AFP. Since 1996, Algeria has shipped to Spain and Portugal around 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year via the Gaz Maghreb Europe (GME) pipeline, which passes through Morocco. In return for this transit, Rabat received annually nearly one billion cubic meters of natural gas.
3 Why is Western Sahara coveted?
Located on the Atlantic coast and bordered by Morocco, Mauritania and Algeria, Western Sahara is a very extensive almost desert area (more than 250,000 square kilometers) but attracts greed: it is rich in phosphates and its Atlantic coast. is full of fish.
Former Spanish colony, Western Sahara is the only territory on the African continent whose postcolonial status remains unresolved. The country is considered a “non-self-governing territory” by the UN, in the absence of a final settlement. Morocco controls 80% and offers broad autonomy under its sovereignty, while the Polisario Front calls for a self-determination referendum.
Beyond the Moroccan and Algerian borders, the situation in Western Sahara is also closely watched by Westerners. Their interests “are very important in the region, especially in the fight against terrorism, recalls Kader Abderrahim, professor at Sciences Po Paris and specialist in Algeria and Morocco, interviewed by TV5 Monde. An open conflict between these two neighbors would weaken the positions of Westerners, Europeans and the United States in the fight against terrorism “.
4Could an open conflict break out between the two countries?
For now, “a direct confrontation seems a priori excluded”, says security expert Akram Kharief, founder of the Menadefense website, interviewed by The world. “Algeria will seek to respond to Morocco in an indirect and realistic way rather than engaging in a frontal war”, adds in the same daily Jalel Harchaoui, researcher at the Institute of international relations of Clingendael, in the Netherlands.
On the Moroccan side, Mohammed VI tried to calm things down in his speech on Saturday. “If we start negotiations, it is mainly to achieve a peaceful settlement of this artificial regional conflict”, said the monarch.
On the side of the international community, the UN Security Council called on the various parties to resume negotiations “without preconditions and in good faith”. These negotiations are to be resumed under the aegis of the new UN envoy, the Italo-Swedish Staffan de Mistura, “with a view to achieving a just, lasting and mutually acceptable political solution” in the perspective of a “self-determination of the people of Western Sahara”, specified on October 29 the UN in a resolution which extended by one year the UN mission (Minurso) for the organization of a referendum in Western Sahara.
But Kader Abderrahim, specialist in Algeria and Morocco interviewed by TV5 Monde, is not so optimistic: “I have always thought that there would be no open conflict between Morocco and Algeria. I am more measured today”, he analyzes. According to him, “all the indicators are red. We are not immune to a slippage that could ignite the region”.