four questions about Transnistria, this region of Moldova which could tip over into conflict

Could the war in Ukraine spill over into Moldova? France announced, Wednesday April 27, to support this small country of 2.6 million inhabitants in the face of “at the risk of destabilization”, said Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian after a series of explosions in the pro-Russian separatist region of Transnistria. Washington also warns of a “escalation of tensions” around this territory, landlocked between Romania and Ukraine.

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Moldova is already suffering the consequences of the war in Ukraine, with the influx of more than 400,000 people who fled the fighting. But the country now fears being won over by the conflict, especially since its relations with Russia have been strained since the arrival at the head of the state in 2020 of Maïa Sandu, pro-European. Franceinfo explains why the situation in the Transnistria region is a source of concern.

1Where is Transnistria located and what is its history?

Transnistria is a strip of land 450 kilometers long by 10 kilometers wide, wedged between Ukraine and Moldova, where some 470,000 people reside. In 1991, this territory declared its independence vis-à-vis Moldova, because its population, mainly Russian-speaking, demanded its attachment to Russia. A brief civil war then broke out, from March to July 21, 1992, the date of the proclamation of a ceasefire between the Russian forces, who had come to support the Transnistrian separatists, and the Moldavian army.

Since then, there have been no other episodes of clashes and, as in Donbass, Transnistria is now considered a self-proclaimed separatist republic. It has its own capital, Tiraspol, its own government, army and currency, the Transnistrian rouble. She is “de facto independent, but recognized by no state, not even Russia, which nevertheless largely supports it”, underlines Florent Parmentier, secretary general of Cevipof and associate researcher at the HEC Paris center for geopolitics, in The Sunday newspaper.

For thirty years, Russian forces have indeed been stationed on this territory: 1,500 men officially carry out a peacekeeping mission between the two camps. In reality, these numbers serve “especially to embarrass the Moldovan government”, because “The Kremlin resents the idea that Moldova is turning to the European Union”analyzes a Western diplomat for The Express. Thousands of tons of old Russian weapons are also stored there.

The region is kept on life support from Russia, which wields strong influence and provides free gas there. The country’s main conglomerate, Sheriff, owned by former Soviet security personnel, “controls the media and owns all the profitable businesses in the separatist region: the sole telecom operator in [réseau mobile professionnel]the construction and textile sectors, hotels, banks, wine & spirits activities and, beyond that, a large part of the livestock sector”Explain The world. The inhabitants have never made a secret of their desire to integrate Russia.

2What happens there?

A series of explosions occurred earlier this week in Transnistria. On Monday, an official building was the target of a rocket launcher attack in Tiraspol. On Tuesday, two detonations damaged a radio tower in the village of Maïak. Of them “powerful” Antennas that relayed Russian radio frequencies were taken out of service there, according to the Moldovan government.

The situation continued to worsen on Wednesday, when a village in Transnistria, located about two kilometers from the Ukrainian border, came under fire. “Last night several drones were spotted over the village of Kolbasna”Transnistria’s Interior Ministry wrote in a statement, adding that “shots were fired from Ukraine”, with no casualties. A large arms depot, dating from the Soviet period, is there under the control of Russian soldiers deployed in this territory.

3Why do these attacks raise fears of an extension of the Ukrainian conflict?

These explosions remain unexplained and the situation is confused. Are these actions directed against Russia? Or would the Russians themselves have provoked them in order to justify an intervention in Transnistria? This is what kyiv claims, accusing Moscow of trying to “destabilize” the territory. “If Ukraine falls, tomorrow Russian troops will be at the gates of Chisinau,” the Moldavian capital, worried the adviser to the Ukrainian presidency, Mykhaïlo Podoliak. The Russian soldiers present in Transnistria have been placed in “state of total alert”affirmed for its part the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

A sign of the anxiety that reigns in Moldova, President Maïa Sandu displays a certain restraint, denouncing a “attempt to increase tensions”. She announced a series of measures, such as the strengthening of road and transport controls, border patrols and additional measures to protect essential infrastructure.

Without going so far as to attribute responsibility for the explosions to Moscow, US State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters: “We remain concerned about any potential attempt to escalate tensions.”

For its part, Russia says it follows “carefully” the situation, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday, adding that “the information that comes from it arouses concern”. Local, pro-Russian authorities have decided to raise the alert level for 15 days “terrorist”thereby strengthening the powers of the security forces.

4Is Russia trying to take over this region?

This is what Moldova fears, fearing to be overwhelmed by the military offensive that Russia has been leading in Ukraine for more than two months. Some analysts believe that Transnistria could serve as a bridgehead for the invasion of southern Ukraine, like Belarus for the North.

Last week, a Russian general claimed that the Russian-speaking population of Moldova was “victim of oppression”one of the pretexts invoked by the Kremlin to intervene in Ukraine in order to “defend” the Russian minority.

Other observers believe that Russia could also try to destabilize Moldova. Until now, Chisinau had succeeded in preserving a certain appeasement with Transnistria, even suggesting a possible reunification. But tensions seem to be picking up again, as Maïa Sandu has just signed a formal application for Moldova to join the European Union in order to protect itself from a possible advance by the Russian army. Transnistria then immediately turned to the UN to seek recognition of its independence, reports International mail.