Cereal cargo ships will once again be able to circulate in the Black Sea. Four days after its withdrawal from the agreement on Ukrainian grain exports, Russia finally announced on Wednesday, November 2, that it would resume its participation. The Kremlin pulled out of the deal on Saturday after an attack on its fleet in Crimea, which it blamed on kyiv.
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For several days, the international community has been urging Moscow to reconsider its position on this agreement, which has allowed the export of millions of tonnes of Ukrainian cereals, despite the war. What are the terms of this agreement? Why is it strategic? How does Russia justify its reversal? Response elements.
1What does this agreement contain?
Called the “Black Sea Grain Initiative”, the agreement was signed on July 22 by Ukraine and Russia, under the aegis of the UN and Turkey. He sets up “safe corridors” for the circulation in the Black Sea of merchant ships. Moscow and Kyiv are committed to “do not attack” ships carrying grain for the duration of the agreement, ie 120 days. It must therefore end in mid-November, or be renewed “if the parties so wish”says the UN.
In return, the Kremlin asked “enable markets to receive additional volumes of fertilizers and cereals” Russians, whose export was hampered by Western sanctions. Russia has also demanded that cargo ships be inspected, both empty and loaded, to prevent the boats from being used to transport weapons. Checks are carried out in the ports of Istanbul by the Joint Coordination Center (JCC), which brings together delegates from Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN.
The agreement aims to relieve countries dependent on the Russian and Ukrainian markets, which together account for 30% of world wheat trade. According to the JCC (in English)the agreement has allowed the export from Ukrainian ports of more than 9.7 million tons of cereals and other agricultural products since its entry into force.
2Why did Russia announce its withdrawal?
Moscow justified the suspension of the agreement by a drone attack which targeted the Russian fleet stationed in the bay of Sevastopol, in annexed Crimea, on Saturday morning. The Russian Defense Ministry accused “the kyiv regime, with the participation of British experts”, to be at the origin of this attack which caused “minor damage” on a ship.
The Russian army on Monday demanded “commitments” Ukraine not to use the grain export corridor for military purposes. Ukraine denounced a “pretext” and London has on its side castigated “fake news” intended for “To divert attention”. The head of the UN humanitarian agency also dismissed the possibility that a ship participating in the deal could have been involved in the attack.
This is not the first time that Moscow has been critical of the deal. Shortly before the announcement of the suspension, the Russian Minister of Agriculture had already crushed the text, accusing the EU countries of monopolizing Ukrainian exports which should go to poor countries. Allegations denied by the JCC, which argues to AFP that European countries represent 36% of total exports, against 20% for Turkey and 17% for Africa. A significant part of the cereals delivered to Turkey is however re-exported, in particular to the Middle East and North Africa, analysts point out.
3What were the consequences of the Russian withdrawal?
In the wake of Moscow’s decision, the Russian delegation to the JCC announced on Sunday that it was withdrawing “until further notice” inspections of vessels carrying Ukrainian grain. Consequence: the movement of cargo ships in recent days has been largely blocked. A dozen ships were nevertheless able to join the maritime corridor on Monday after the Turkish and UN delegations reinforced their inspection staff.
On the diplomatic level, the Russian withdrawal has also provoked strong reactions within the international community. The European Union urged Moscow to “reconsider”who “endangers the main export route for cereals and fertilizers which are needed to respond to the world food crisis caused by the war”. US President Joe Biden, meanwhile, judged the decision “scandalous”. His secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said that “Moscow [fichait] that the world may be hungry”.
4How does the Kremlin justify its return to the agreement?
Russia resumed its participation in the agreement on Wednesday, claiming to have received “written warranties” from Ukraine on the demilitarization of the corridor used for their transport. “Russia considers that the guarantees received so far seem sufficient and resumes implementation of the agreement”, said the Russian Defense Ministry. Vladimir Putin, however, threatened to quit the deal again, in case of “breach of warranties” by Ukraine.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday confirmed the resumption of Ukrainian grain exports at midday, via the humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea. A series of telephone calls in recent days between Russian and Turkish officials, notably on Tuesday between Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin, as well as the intercession of the UN, therefore seem to have convinced Moscow to reconsider its position.