Moscow shows its teeth. On the fourth day of the invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin announced on Sunday February 27 to put the “deterrent” of the Russian army, which may include a nuclear component. The Russian President justified this decision by the “bellicose declarations of NATO”. He also criticized the economic sanctions taken against Russia and described them as“illegitimate”.
What does this strength contain? What is it for ? Response elements.
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1What is the Russian “deterrent force”?
The Russian deterrent forces are a set of units whose purpose is to deter an attack against Russia. These forces are equipped with missiles, strategic bombers, submarines and surface ships. On the defensive side, they include an anti-missile shield, space control systems, anti-aircraft and anti-satellite defense.
Nuclear weapons are among those forces. “Russia’s nuclear deterrent is based on what is called the ‘strategic triad’, consisting of land-based (intercontinental missiles), air (missiles launched from a bomber) and submarine (missiles launched by nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines)”Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, associate researcher at the Thomas More Institute and specialist in security issues in Europe, told franceinfo.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the Russian army had 6,375 nuclear weapons in 2019. For comparison, the United States had 5,800, China 320 and France 290.
2How can Vladimir Putin use it?
The reality of “alert” of this force is not immediately clear. According to Associated Press (in English)Russian nuclear land and submarine weapons are prepared to be operational at all times, but not nuclear bombers.
Above all, no one knows what Vladimir Putin intends to do exactly. “It won’t necessarily be a matter of launching 1,000 intercontinental missiles and razing the planet. But it could carry out a tactical nuclear strike in Ukraineassumes Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier. Since the fall of the USSR, the Russians have kept thousands of tactical nuclear weapons in its western part.”
3Is this a change of strategy on the part of the Kremlin?
Officially, the Russian nuclear doctrine is strictly dissuasive. “In June 2020, an update to Russian nuclear doctrine stipulated that this weapon would only be used to deter an attack on the integrity of Russian territory”reminds the Figaro (paid item) Héloïse Fayet, coordinator of the Deterrence and Proliferation program at the Ifri Center for Security Studies.
From now on, Moscow is no longer content to deter, but brandishes nuclear weapons as a tool of coercion, analyzes Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier.
“With nuclear weapons, Vladimir Putin is now blackmailing, intimidating, to force Western countries to let him conquer Ukraine.”
Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, specialist in security issues in Europeat franceinfo
In recent weeks, the Russian president has constantly mentioned nuclear weapons in the conflict with Ukraine. After Emmanuel Macron’s visit in early February, the head of the Kremlin recalled that Russia was one of the world’s leading nuclear powers. He supervised exercises with missile fire “hypersonic”, capable of carrying nuclear charges. To justify the recognition of the independence of the separatist territories of Donbass, he argued that Ukraine wanted to create “its own nuclear weapons”.
For Héloïse Fayet, this Russian escalation may correspond to the theory of “escalate to de-escalate”which consists of invoking extreme threats in order to very quickly force the adversary not to act and thus achieve de-escalation, specifies Le Figaro. It differs from the theory of “graduated response” where the use of the weapon is calibrated according to the threat and the objectives.
Can we expect a nuclear escalation?
After Vladimir Putin’s various allusions to nuclear weapons, Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian recalled on Thursday that NATO was “also a nuclear alliance”. But since Sunday, Western countries have warned that they do not wish to engage in a nuclear escalation. Vladimir Poutine “manufactures threats that do not exist”, White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said on Sunday. For his part, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg denounced the rhetoric “dangerous” from Moscow. “This is behavior that is irresponsible”he said on CNN (in English).
For Gaspard Schnitzler, researcher on defense issues at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (Iris), this warning is “especially a communication strategy”.
“It is even totally improbable that Russia will resort to nuclear weapons. It would plunge Europe into a conflict such as it has never known.”
Gaspard Schnitzler, researcher at Irisat franceinfo
Other experts want to be more cautious. “If Vladimir Putin prepares his bombers for nuclear combat (…), then the United States may feel compelled to respond”estimated by AP (in English) Hans Kristensen, nuclear analyst at the Federation of American Scientists.
“Vladimir Putin has had disturbing speeches on nuclear power in recent years. We cannot say that he is just in the symbolism. There is an apocalyptic Russian reading grid of the world.”
Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenierat franceinfo
“Westerners do not want to believe in the use of nuclear weapons, because these methods seem from another era, from another world. If the threat materialized, we would not be ready”slice with the Figaro Florent Parmentier, teacher at Sciences Po and specialist in geopolitics in Eastern Europe.