The production of fossil fuels planned for the coming years is far too important to hope to limit global warming to a viable threshold, concludes a new analysis drafted in particular by UN experts. The extraction of oil and natural gas in Canada must also continue to grow, while the federal government continues to provide significant financial support to the industry.
The 2021 edition of Production Gap Report, which is made public this Wednesday and that The duty was able to consult under an embargo, underlines that the forecasts for the production of oil, natural gas and coal are “dangerously” far from the climate objectives of the Paris Agreement.
More specifically, the major producing countries plan to use around 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than what would be consistent with the most ambitious objective of the Paris Agreement, namely that of limiting global warming to 1.5. ° C compared to the pre-industrial era. This same production will be 45% higher than what would make it possible not to exceed a global warming of 2 ° C.
Global production of coal (240% too high), oil (57% too high) and natural gas (71% too high) will be far too high over the next decade to hope to limit the rise in temperatures to 1, 5 ° C. The report also stresses that “this continuous and long-term expansion of natural gas production”, which could continue until 2040, is incompatible with the objectives of the Paris Agreement.
Canada is no exception to this strong growth trend in oil and gas development, as in both cases the report predicts an increase at least until 2030, if not well beyond. It is therefore a question of an increase estimated at 18% for oil and 17% for natural gas, by 2040.
Financial support
The report, produced by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and research organizations, also points out that the Canadian government has not planned any specific policy to reduce production. On the contrary, the federal government “sees fossil fuel exports as a critical element of economic growth and prosperity”, but also as a means of financing “the transition to a low-carbon economy”. This argument is often used by the Trudeau government to justify the buyout of the Trans Mountain pipeline and the public funding of the latter’s expansion project.
However, the decline in the production of the industry is urgent, recently concluded a study published in the scientific journal. Nature. According to this analysis produced by researchers at University College London, the country must leave no less than 83% of proven oil reserves in the ground in order to help fight the climate crisis. On the contrary, the industry is forecasting growth, so that western Canadian oil production alone is expected to exceed six million barrels per day by 2035, while Newfoundland hopes to double production in the marine environment, and this, after 2030.
In addition to forecasting an expansion of the fossil industry over the next few years, the main producing countries continue to financially support the sector. Since the start of the pandemic, the report says, they have offered no less than $ 300 billion in new funds to this sector, a figure that exceeds the sums injected into “clean energy” projects.
Canada is no exception, according to figures in the document released on Wednesday. The annual subsidies for the production would oscillate between 1.4 billion and 4.8 billion dollars, according to the various estimates. For the 2018-2020 period, the federal and Alberta governments have also provided $ 23 billion in funding for three pipeline projects, all designed to facilitate oil sands exports.
Accumulated delay
Fellow at the Center for International Studies and Research at the University of Montreal and Senior Advisor at COPTICOM, Hugo Séguin is not surprised by the conclusions of the 2021 edition of the Production Gap Report. “It’s not surprising, but it’s shocking to see this, and it reveals a big part of the problem when it comes to aligning our climate goals with policies on the ground,” he says.
At the same time, he reminds us that the expected growth in fossil fuel production comes when scientists have clearly demonstrated the need to substantially reduce exploitation over the next few years. “We should see producing countries file production reduction scenarios. But that is not what we see. “
Holder of the chair in energy sector management at HEC Montréal, Pierre-Olivier Pineau is not surprised by the report’s conclusions either. He also underlines that the growth of oil production continues because it meets our important needs, particularly in terms of transporting people and the goods that we consume on a daily basis. “The trajectory of hydrocarbon production is closely linked to the anticipated trajectory of consumption. The two follow each other, and we can well say that we should not produce in Canada, if we continue to consume in Canada, production will take place elsewhere and the gains will be minimal or zero, ”he argues.
To correct the situation, Mr. Pineau insists on the need to “transform” mobility. “In the short term, we need to put incentives for active and public transportation, and penalties on individual vehicles, particularly large and powerful ones. In the longer term, we must review land use and densify inhabited areas, whether in cities or rural areas, to allow most trips to be made without a private vehicle. “
For the director of national policies of the Climate Action Network Canada, Caroline Brouillette, the fact remains that “the continued expansion of the production and export of oil and gas from Canada is incompatible with the limit of ‘global temperature increase to 1.5 ° C and with a safe climate’. In this context, she urges the Trudeau government to implement a plan to cap and then reduce emissions from the sector, as it committed to during the election campaign.