Worrying climate signals may be omnipresent, but countries continue to encourage growth in global production of fossil fuels, notes the United Nations in a report published Wednesday and which launches an unequivocal appeal a few days before the next climate conference world: we must eliminate the use of oil, gas and coal.
According to data compiled in the analysis published by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), different governments plan to produce twice as much fossil fuels in 2030 as would be compatible with the most ambitious target of the Paris Agreement, or limit warming to 1.5°C, compared to the pre-industrial era.
The production expected by the end of the decade is also at least 69% too high to limit the rise in temperatures to 2°C, a threshold well beyond a planetary climate deemed viable by scientists and which would be characterized by an increase in extreme climatic phenomena.
Current plans to expand the industry responsible for the bulk of the climate crisis would see global coal production increase until 2030, and global oil and gas production until at least 2050, according to UNEP.
Large producers
The report focuses on expected growth in the top 20 producing countries, including Canada, the United States, China, Russia and the United Arab Emirates, host country of the next United Nations climate conference (COP28). These 20 states alone represent 82% of production and 73% of global consumption.
Even though 17 of these countries have committed to achieving net zero emissions, or carbon neutrality, “none has committed to reducing the production of coal, oil and gas with a view to limiting warming to 1.5° C,” deplores the report.
In the case of Canada, the report notes that oil and natural gas production must grow in the coming years, primarily to supply the global market. Infrastructure like the Trans Mountain pipeline, which belongs to the federal government, was developed for precisely this purpose. Same thing for the LNG Canada project, whose Coastal GasLink pipeline was recently completed.
The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers also forecasts that investments in oil and natural gas production will reach $40 billion this year, in particular to stimulate production growth.
The country produces about 4.8 million barrels per day of crude and that figure could rise to about 5.3 million barrels by the end of 2024, according to analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insight. The majority of oil comes from the tar sands, where total reserves are estimated to be around 160 billion barrels. When it comes to natural gas, growing production is mainly linked to fracking projects.
Eliminate fossils
The increase in production, in Canada as elsewhere in the world, however goes against international climate objectives, according to the Secretary General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres.
“We cannot confront climate catastrophe without addressing its root cause: dependence on fossil fuels. COP28 must send a clear signal: the era of fossil fuels has no more energy, its end is inevitable. We need credible commitments to increase renewable energy, phase out fossil fuels and increase energy efficiency, while ensuring a just and equitable transition,” he argued on Wednesday in a statement accompanying the report. of UNEP.
“Government plans to increase fossil fuel production undermine the energy transition needed to achieve net-zero emissions and call into question the future of humanity,” added Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP.
One of the main authors of the report, Ploy Achakulwisut, also warns against the temptation to use natural gas by presenting it as a “transition” energy. “The science says we need to start reducing the production and use of coal, oil and gas now, while expanding clean energy, reducing methane emissions from all sources and taking other climate measures, in order to maintain the 1.5°C objective.”
UNEP also deplores public financial support for the fossil fuel sector. Canadian fossil fuel subsidies reached US$38 billion (C$51.5 billion) last year, according to an analysis published in August by researchers at the International Monetary Fund. However, the majority of this amount is attributable to costs associated with the consequences of air pollution and the climate crisis.