The current Minister of Defense Prabowo Subianto, with a controversial military past, claimed Wednesday evening “victory in the first round” of the presidential election in Indonesia, after initial projections which placed him well in the lead.
“All the counts, all the polls… showed that (the ticket) Prabowo-Gibran won in one round. This victory should be a victory for all Indonesians,” declared the former general, during a speech in a huge room in Jakarta, alongside his running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka, eldest son of the outgoing president.
Initial projections placed Prabowo Subianto, the big favorite before the election, at more than 55% of the vote, thus placing him in a position to be elected in the first round.
Even if he claimed victory to succeed Joko Widodo next October at the head of the third democracy in the world, the former general indicated that he would wait for the “official result” of the electoral commission.
“We believe that Indonesian democracy works well. The people have decided, the people have decided,” he told journalists, before calling for unity.
“Now that the campaign is over, we must unite again,” he said.
Although accused of human rights abuses under the Suharto dictatorship at the end of the 1990s, this 72-year-old former general should therefore take control of the largest economy in Southeast Asia, after ten years of power of Joko Widodo, nicknamed Jokowi, who could no longer represent himself.
The Minister of Defense is well ahead in this election in the order of Anies Baswedan, the former governor of Jakarta, and Ganjar Pranowo, former governor of Central Java.
To win in the first round, he had to obtain more than 50% of the total votes and at least a fifth of the votes in more than half of the country’s provinces.
While official results won’t be known until March, analysts estimate that, based on projections, Prabowo likely avoided a June runoff.
“It depends on which areas the samples come from, but with those kinds of numbers, I’m relatively confident it won’t need a second round,” said Justin Hastings, professor of international relations at the University of Sydney.
“The support for Jokowi was massive. Obviously he was there. Social assistance was distributed by the state apparatus… that is the main factor,” said Yoes Kenawas, a political analyst at Atma Jaya Catholic University in Jakarta.
Waiting for results
Anies Baswedan, favorite to face Subianto in the event of a runoff, said he would wait for an official announcement.
“We are waiting for the Electoral Commission’s count to be completed. Don’t rush, relax, there is still a long way to go,” he said.
If part of the population is sensitive to his nationalist discourse, the prospect of Prabowo Subianto becoming president has raised concerns about a possible setback in democratic gains.
“I want to have a leader who will perpetuate democracy,” said consultant Debbie Sianturi before voting in Jakarta.
Prabowo Subianto “was a soldier, so I think he can be a real leader,” said Afhary Firnanda, a 28-year-old office worker living in the capital.
In addition to its president, Indonesia, a vast archipelago of 17,000 islands, had to elect 580 deputies and 20,000 regional and local representatives in a single day.
Jokowi’s legacy
Candidate for the third time, Mr. Prabowo developed a nationalist and populist rhetoric and pledged to continue the policies of the outgoing president, nicknamed Jokowi. Other candidates and student movements accused the latter of having used state resources to try to influence the election in favor of his minister.
As head of special forces, Mr Prabowo was accused by NGOs of ordering the kidnapping of pro-democracy activists in the 1990s, towards the end of Suharto’s regime. He denied these accusations and was never prosecuted.
For these allegations, the ex-soldier was deprived of a visa for a long time by the United States and Australia.
But thanks to a large presence on social networks, the man has softened his image among young Indonesians who often ignore the accusations against him and appreciate his commitment to continuing the policies of the very popular Jokowi.
“We have always had concerns about his true attachment to democracy,” analyzes Yoes Kenawas, researcher at the Catholic University Atma Jaya in Jakarta. “If he is elected, these questions will remain unanswered.”
Mr. Prabowo took off in the polls with the nomination alongside him for vice president of Gibran Rakabuming Raka, 36, Jokowi’s eldest son.
Theoretically too young, Mr. Gibran was only able to run following a controversial decision by the Constitutional Court, adopted thanks to the decisive vote of the president of the court, Anwar Usman, brother-in-law of Joko Widodo.
After 10 years in power, the latter will leave to his successor a country which is experiencing constant growth, of 5.05% in 2023, certainly a slight decline compared to 5.3% in 2022.