Acts of foreign interference “may” have affected the electoral results of a small number of ridings in the last two federal elections — but they had no impact on the election of the Liberal Party of Canada (PLC ), concludes Commissioner Marie-Josée Hogue in her preliminary report published Friday.
“Acts of foreign interference were committed during the last two federal general elections, but they did not undermine the integrity of our electoral system, the strength of which has not been shaken,” he said. she declared Friday noon while speaking to the media in Ottawa.
In her 227-page report, however, the commissioner reveals that “it is possible” that the interference had an impact on the results of certain constituencies: notably in 2019, during the nomination race of Liberal candidate Han Dong in Ontario, then in 2021 in the Steveston–Richmond-East riding, in Vancouver.
However, it remains impossible to say with certainty, and the number of constituencies in which the interference activities allegedly took place is “relatively small”, reiterates the commissioner in her analysis.
“I can conclude with confidence that the Liberal Party would have taken power with or without foreign interference in 2019 and 2021,” she summarizes.
Ahead of the 2019 election, intelligence reports indicated that Chinese international students were allegedly bused to the riding of Don Valley-North, Ontario, to support Liberal candidate Han Dong at his nomination rally .
Commissioner Hogue notes that these allegations are “more corroborated” than others, but since the riding is considered a Liberal stronghold, it likely would not have had an impact on which party won the seat.
“On the other hand, it could have had an impact on the person who was elected to Parliament,” she agrees.
The Chinese student bus “incident” demonstrates “the extent to which nomination races can be entry points for foreign states that want to interfere in our democratic process,” she warns.
She promises to examine these processes in the second phase of the commission’s work.
Since last fall, Commissioner Hogue has looked into allegations of interference that occurred during the last two federal elections. Its long-awaited report comes after more than eight months of work and around twenty days of public hearings held since the start of the year.
Limited analysis
In 2021, misinformation about Conservative MP Kenny Chiu would also have had repercussions on the electoral results in the riding of Steveston–Richmond East. The latter had been the target of false stories to portray him as being unfavorable to China.
“Clear indications of the involvement of the People’s Republic of China exist and it is reasonable to believe that these false statements had an impact on the results in this constituency,” the report reads.
However, as the vote is secret in Canada, it is not possible to establish a direct link between the misleading information conveyed in the media and the choice of voters.
Even assuming that some voters changed their allegiance, there is no way of knowing whether there were enough of them to change the result, notes the commissioner.
If the impact of the interference activities turned out to be “weak”, the fact remains that they “undermined confidence in democracy”, deplores the commissioner.
“This is perhaps the greatest harm that Canada has suffered from foreign interference,” she believes.
No recommendation
The commission did not issue any recommendations related to the conclusions established in its preliminary report. We will have to wait for Judge Hogue’s final report, scheduled for December, to read it.
A second round of public hearings will take place this fall, and will focus on broader policy issues, such as the government’s ability to detect, deter and counter foreign interference.
Commissioner Hogue’s general conclusions echo those of special rapporteur David Johnston, who also looked into the allegations of interference last year.
In his report, Mr. Johnston concluded that foreign governments had attempted to influence Canadian candidates and voters, but that there is no reason to question the validity of the 2019 or 2021 elections.
However, unlike Mr. Johnston, who alleged that the information in the media leaks had been misinterpreted, Judge Hogue does not question the validity of the revelations made by the Globe and Mail and the Global network last year.
Mr. Johnston resigned as special rapporteur on June 9 last year, saying his post is too mired in political controversy for him to continue his work. Opposition parties had called for his departure because of his ties to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.