(Ottawa) Many Liberal strategists have May 23 circled in their calendars. It is on this date that the independent special rapporteur, former Governor General David Johnston, will recommend to Justin Trudeau whether or not to hold a public inquiry into foreign interference during the federal election.
For several months, the Trudeau government has been on the defensive in this matter. Revelations that China used sophisticated means in the last election to influence voters in some constituencies to secure the election of a Liberal minority government have dominated debates in the House of Commons for the past four months. .
The case took on greater proportions when the daily The Globe and Mail revealed three weeks ago that Conservative MP Michael Chong and members of his family who still live in Hong Kong had been intimidated by Chinese agents because the Ontario MP had sponsored a motion passed in the Commons calling the treatment of the Uyghur minority in China a genocide.
In the eyes of many observers, the only option open to David Johnston is to recommend next Tuesday that a public inquiry be held, even if this could represent a challenge for any government which must protect national security information.
May 23 could also mark the beginning of a reflection on a household in the offices of power in Ottawa. For the past few weeks, the rumor mill has been running wild again in the nation’s capital over a cabinet reshuffle over the summer – a reshuffle that would allow Justin Trudeau to begin preparing for the upcoming federal election.
During the Liberal Party’s national convention in Ottawa in early May, Justin Trudeau said in a fiery speech that he would lead the Liberal troops in the upcoming campaign.
Liberal delegates showed impressive loyalty to their leader during the three-day convention. Many noted that Justin Trudeau had saved the Liberal Party from a death that seemed inevitable in 2015 and that he remained a formidable asset in the election campaign.
Now that he has confirmed his intentions, Justin Trudeau must choose the ministerial team that will support him between now and the next campaign. “The Prime Minister has strategic decisions to make by the end of the summer,” said a Liberal strategist, who requested anonymity, referring to the possibility of a cabinet reshuffle.
It is common for a prime minister to ask his ministers to clarify whether they will run again before concocting a reshuffle.
At least three ministers could opt out of seeking another term: Fisheries and Oceans Minister Joyce Murray, Mental Health and Addictions Minister Carolyn Bennett and Emergency Preparedness Minister Bill Blair.
Justin Trudeau will have to assess who is the best person to defend the government’s position if David Johnston proposes a public inquiry into foreign interference. Behind the scenes, we do not believe that the current Minister of Public Security, Marco Mendicino, is capable of accomplishing this delicate mission. Mr. Mendicino has also had a hard time due to the debacle linked to the last-minute amendments proposed to the firearms bill last fall and which had to be withdrawn. Nor has he been the government’s best communicator on foreign interference so far, many Liberals say.
PHOTO SEAN KILPATRICK, THE CANADIAN PRESS ARCHIVES
Public Security Minister Marco Mendicino
In principle, the federal election should not take place before the fall of 2025 if the agreement reached last year between the Liberals and the NDP holds out until the end, that is until June 2025.
In the Liberal ranks, it is estimated that this agreement should allow them to govern without worry for another 12 months. Same with the New Democrats.
Result: we are preparing for the holding of general elections in the spring of 2024, after the tabling of the next budget. Some Liberals argue that the NDP will have a pretext to end the agreement when it becomes clear that it will be impossible to implement a national drug insurance program – a very expensive measure.
Recently, the Liberals sent out the first hint that they are considering such a scenario. Jeremy Broadhurst, who was a close adviser to Justin Trudeau, left his post in the Prime Minister’s Office to work on election preparations at the headquarters of the Liberal Party of Canada. Mr Broadhurst led the 2019 Liberal campaign and served as the party’s national director from 2013 to 2015.
Liberal strategists welcome the call of the election before the end of March 2024. The new electoral map is to come into effect from 1er April next year. Under this new electoral map, Alberta will be entitled to three more seats, British Columbia will have one more seat, as will Ontario. The Conservative Party could win many of these new seats. In addition, the new constituency boundaries could shift at least 15 seats held by the Liberal Party or the NDP to the Conservative camp, according to some experts.
It is quite obvious that the new electoral map is not favorable to the Liberals. We better aim for a campaign sooner rather than later.
A liberal strategist on condition of anonymity
In a month, on June 19, by-elections will be held in four ridings across the country (Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount in Quebec, Oxford in Ontario, Portage–Lisgar and Winnipeg–Centre-Sud in Manitoba.
These by-elections could give Justin Trudeau the opportunity to appoint new ministers. Liberal candidate Anna Gainey is likely to be minister if she wins in Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount. Ben Carr could also enter cabinet if he succeeds his father, the late Jim Carr, a respected former cabinet minister, in Winnipeg South Centre.
But above all, these partial will test the mood of voters a few months before the next campaign.